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A Stormy Weekend Ahead?

We’ve been watching storms the past few days across sections of the Midwest, the Front Range of the Rockies, the South, the Northeast, and the Southeast.  In fact – the only places that DIDN’T see thunderstorms yesterday were Manitoba, the Canadian province, and then three states (Arizona, Nevada, and California) in the U.S.

Today and tomorrow will likely see more storms throughout sections of the nation, which leads us to a discussion of the weekend’s storm potential.  What is likely?

Wobbly Friday Low

Those green shaded areas represent chances for rainfall – with the area of low pressure “wobbling” around the region.  In fact, things are a bit more complicated than that – but really storms are going to depend on the location of the warm front, so let’s examine that a little bit.

Zone Of Warm Air

See the area circled?  That is where the winds “kink” – or switch directions.  Those are zones where you will typically see some form of rainfall or convection, and that is exactly what we’re looking at for that time-frame.

Take a look at this map, this is future rainfall for the same time period (Friday evening):

Future Rainfall (NAM Model - Friday Evening)

Certainly interesting, eh?  We’ll watch for it.

Now – for some show & tell.  Last weekend I was up in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area with some good friends.

First, we drove to Ely, MN.  It is just about 20 miles from Canada.  That is about a 4 to 4.5 hour drive from Minneapolis.  We stay in a bunkhouse at one of the outfitters in Ely, and this year we outfitted ourselves with everything except for the canoes/paddles/life jackets.

Boundary Waters Trip (map courtesy of http://voyageurmaps.com/map4zoom.html)

Day 1 was quite the haul, but we managed to see TONS of waterfalls, and were treated to two beavers playing at night just before sunset.

Boundary Waters Waterfall Power

Boundary Waters Camping

If you look closely at the image above, you’ll see me holding an orange cup, drinking some refreshing afternoon coffee.  We have to portage (carry) everything in and out with us, so you bring the bare minimum to keep weight down – but we treated ourselves to french press coffee on the go this year.

Day two we went and visited some pictographs after looking at more waterfalls, and then canoed down the Horse River to Horse Lake – camping on a point so we had about 270 degrees worth of a water view!

Then it was the home stretch.  Another 4-5 miles of canoeing to get out, and get some hot showers & the drive home!

If you’re still reading – thanks!  Hope you enjoyed it, and with regard to storm chances this weekend you should stay tuned!

WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV

Will Barry Develop in the Atlantic? Severe Thunderstorm Threats and Wildfire Update

Monday, June 17th, 2013

This weather is for fish! June has been a fairly wet month for some, especially along the Eastern Seaboard. Radar estimates of rainfall through the first half of the month are tipping the scales at 5″ to 8″ or more, thanks largely in part due to Tropical Storm Andrea earlier this Month. Thanks to Chris Smith from Northern Idaho for the fishy photo below!

Precipitation Past 14 Days

The image below shows pockets of heavy rainfall across the nation, with the heaviest blob over the Eastern Seaboard. Note how the Southwest has seen little precipitation so far this month!

U.S. Drought Monitor

The U.S. Drought Monitor released it’s latest drought map last week (New update every Thursday) and showed that the central and western part of the country is still in a deep drought. The latest rainfall has helped, but we still need more and quite a bit more out west!

“This U.S. Drought Monitor week saw some improvements along the Eastern seaboard as the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season – Tropical Storm Andrea – made landfall over Florida late last week bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms to the region. Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea moved up the East Coast on Friday and Saturday combining with a cold front to deliver heavy precipitation and flooding to the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. Across the Great Plains, scattered shower activity led to some modest improvements in areas of drought over the eastern halves of Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. In the Midwest west of the Mississippi, continued shower activity led to improvements in drought areas of western Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. In the South, modest rainfall led to minor improvements over portions of the Texas Panhandle, central and southeast Texas, and northwestern Louisiana. Out West, unseasonably hot and dry conditions were felt late last week and during the weekend as record-breaking heat gripped Arizona, California, and Nevada. Some relief from the heat came to the region late Sunday afternoon and Monday as showers and thunderstorms developed over northwestern Nevada and northern California. In Alaska, unseasonably warm temperatures, reaching the low 70s, were observed in south-central Alaska; southeast Alaska, the Interior, and western Alaska experienced below-normal temperatures.”

Read more from the U.S. Drought Monitor HERE:

Rainfall Needed to End Drought

This is an interesting graphic. It shows much rain (precipitation) is needed to end the drought across the country. It’s a little disturbing to think that there are places that need 6″ to 12″+ of rain to end the drought. Note the near 4″ to 5″ near the Las Vegas region… Keep in mind that Las Vegas typically only sees 4″ to 5″ of precipitation per year!

Drought Outlook

NOAA’s CPC Drought Outlook continues to show promise for those in the central part of the country. Unfortunately, the drought outlook for folks in the western half of the country, it doesn’t look good where drought conditions may persist for quite some time.

“Latest Seasonal Assessment – During the past three weeks (since May 16), an active weather pattern, consisting of a series of slow-moving storm systems tracking across the northern tier of the Nation, brought ample rainfall to the Pacific Northwest, the northern thirds of the Rockies and High Plains, much of the Great Plains, Midwest, Delta, Great Lakes Region, New England, and southern half of Florida. 3-week temperatures have averaged below normal in the Northwest , northern Rockies and Plains, and upper Midwest. Since May 1, the heaviest rains (more than 7 inches) have fallen on parts of the northern High Plains, the middle Mississippi Valley, central Great Plains, the upper and lower Delta, parts of Florida, and the southern Appalachians. In contrast, drier conditions were observed in the Southwest, the southern Rockies and High Plains, portions of the Southeast, especially Alabama, the eastern Ohio Valley, and the mid-Atlantic.”

See more from NOAA’s CPC HERE:

Precipitation Outlook

NOAA’s HPC 5 day forecast brings another batch of heavier rain across the southern half of the nation (except the Southwest). Several rounds of showers and storms will be responsible for this soggy outlook. There is also another slow moving low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest that will be responsible for heavy pockets of rain along the Canadian boarder over the next few days.

Severe Threats Ahead

June can be a pretty active time for showers and thunderstorms and we’ll have no shortage of thunder potential this week. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted strong to severe thunderstorm potential over the few days.

Check out some of the stormy pics from this weekend below…

Severe Threat Monday

Severe Threat Tuesday

Severe Threat Wednesday

2013 Tornado Drought

Even with the recent spike in severe weather, 2013 is still lacking in the tornado department. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the first 16 days of June has seen 92 PRELIMINARY tornado reports. June typically sees nearly 250 nationwide.

2013 National Tornadoes

According to the SPC, there have been 573 PRELIMINARY tornadoes across the nation so far this year. On average, there should be closer to 1000!

Average U.S. Tornadoes By Month

On average, the number of national tornadoes begins to decline in June. It can still be a very active month, but we’ve typically seen the peak by now. Big domes of hot air in the central part of the country during the summer months is generally the reason for the decrease in tornadoes and overall severe weather reports during the summer months.

Tracking the Tropics

Say hello to Tropical Depression #2 in the Atlantic Basin, which developed on Monday just southeast of Mexico. The track takes this thing over eastern Mexico and then back into the Bay of Campeche before making landfall with Mexico again later this week.

See more images HERE:

WebcamsDeMexico.com

This was a picture from Bacalar, Mexico as a band of showers and storms was rolling in on early Monday. Looks like a pretty nasty cloud there huh?

See more webcams HERE:

Tracking the Tropics

The latest from the National Hurricane Center keeps this storm across Mexico and well away from the U.S. mainland. It appears that the biggest threat with this storm will be heavy rain and inland flooding.

Wildfire Update

The Black Forest wildfires in Colorado continues… Here’s the latest from inciweb.org

“The Black Forest Fire started on Tuesday, June 11th. The cause is undetermined. It is located in the northeast section of Colorado Springs, within the city limits. Rich Harvey’s Great Basin Type 1 Incident Management Team took over management of the fire on Wednesday June 12th at 6 a.m.

This wind driven fire moved very quickly the first day. The current assessment has determined 482 structures have been destroyed and 17 were damaged. Several thousand residents were evacuated. As areas cool down and have been cleared of potential safety hazards, some residents are being allowed to return to their homes. Safety assessments of structures are ongoing. A few resources have been released as firefighters continue to make progress toward their containment objectives.”

Read more from inciweb.org HERE:

(Image below courtesy inciweb.org)

“BLACK FOREST – The Black Forest Fire is 65 percent contained, has destroyed 483 homes and damaged 17. It has consumed more houses than 2012′s Waldo Canyon Fire – making it the most destructive fire in state history. More than 3,600 homes in the area remain untouched, and fire crews are working around the clock to keep it that way. The El Paso County Sheriff’s Department is expected to release the names of the two people who died in the blaze on Monday. An investigation is underway into the cause of the wind-driven fire. All that is known at this point is the blaze was not started by lightning. Four burglaries and one impersonation of a fire official or police officer was reported in the Black Forest Fire area, El Paso County Sheriff Terry Maketa said Sunday. Some mandatory evacuations for the Black Forest Fire were lifted Saturday night. Residents to the north were allowed to begin returning home at 8 p.m. Saturday. They’ll remain under pre-evacuation and must be ready to go at a moment’s notice.”

Watch/Read more from our affiliate KUSA in Denver, CO HERE:

Royal Gorge Fire

inciweb.org is reporting that the Royal Gorge Fire is now 100% contained!

“Royal Gorge Fire is 100 Percent Contained – Cañon City, Colo. – Today, fire crews finished mopping-up the fire perimeter. The Royal Gorge Fire is 100 percent contained as of 6 p.m. this evening. Smoke may continue to be visible in the fire area due to isolated pockets of unburned fuel inside the containment lines. This is the final update for the Royal Gorge Fire from the Rocky Mountain Area Incident Management Team B. Command of the fire will transition back to the local unit on Monday at 6 a.m. Local fire resources will continue to monitor the fire as necessary. For further fire information, please contact Denise Adamic, BLM Public Affairs Specialist, at (719) 269-8553. The Royal Gorge Fire Information line will not be staffed as of 8 p.m. Sunday. The final size of the Royal Gorge Fire is 3,218 acres. The majority of the fire was in the City of Cañon City (2,156 acres); with additional acreage on private lands (561 acres) as well as lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (501 acres).”

See more from inciweb.org HERE:

Image below courtesy inciweb.org

Thanks for Checking in, have a great rest of your week!

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

America’s Serious 2013 Moisture Imbalance: Too Much East, Not Nearly Enough West

30 Day Rainfall Percent of Normal. Much of central Minnesota and the immediate Twin Cities has picked up twice as much rain as normal in the last 30 days, according to NOAA. Farms over southeastern Minnesota have seen 2 to 3 times more rain than average since May 15.

An Early Start To Wildfire Season. In yesterday’s edition of “Climate Matters” we examined wildfire trends over the western USA. Wildfire season is now an average of 78 days longer than it was in 1970. Dry areas are becoming even drier, and when winter snows are lighter than average it can set the stage for a long, hot, fiery season. Such will be the case in 2013.

The Storm, Next Time. Have we learned anything from Superstorm Sandy? Here’s an excerpt of an Op-Ed in The New York Times: “…About 400,000 New Yorkers live in flood-prone areas. City analysts estimate that, by the 2050s, 800,000 people will live within those areas. As Mr. Bloomberg said of the need to start working immediately: “Whether you believe climate change is real or not is beside the point; the bottom line is we can’t run the risk.” The main challenge, of course, will be finding enough money to build the walls, bulkheads, levees and other fortifications to minimize the effects of future storms. Mr. Bloomberg estimated that his complex plan, with 250 proposals, would cost almost $20 billion over the next decade…” (photo: Patsy Lynch, FEMA).

You’re Going To Get Wet. The Economist reports that Americans are building beachfront homes, even as ocean levels continue to rise. What’s the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results? Better to buy a home 5 blocks inland…and be patient. Here’s an excerpt: “Before Hurricane Sandy tore through New York and New Jersey, it stopped in Florida. Huge waves covered beaches, swept over Fort Lauderdale’s concrete sea wall and spilled onto A1A, Florida’s coastal highway. A month later another series of violent storms hit south Florida, severely eroding Fort Lauderdale’s beaches and a chunk of A1A. Workers are building a new sea wall, mending the highway and adding a couple of pedestrian bridges. Beach erosion forced Fort Lauderdale to buy sand from an inland mine in central Florida; the mine’s soft, white sand stands out against the darker, grittier native variety. Hurricanes and storms are nothing new for Florida. But as the oceans warm, hurricanes are growing more intense. To make matters worse, this is happening against a backdrop of sharply rising sea levels, turning what has been a seasonal annoyance into an existential threat…”

Photo credit: Eyevine.

The Worst Charities: Get Information Before You Make Donation. Here’s an excerpt of an eye-opening report from Marketplace.org (which puts on a fine radio show on Public Radio, btw): …”The top of our list is an organization called Kid’s Wish Network. They operate out of a metal warehouse in Holiday, Fla. Over the past decade they’ve raised millions of dollars. Of that, about 80 percent — $110 million — has gone to professional solicitors, $4.8 million has gone to the charity’s founder and his consulting firm, and only $0.03 of every $1 that they’ve raised has actually spent directly on helping kids,” says Taggart. “Most of the causes are popular causes that appeal to donors and may sound like a more well-known group.” To make sure that you’re sending your money to good places, Taggart says there are many resources to research charities online.”

The Most Dangerous Traffic Circle In The World? If you have a couple of minutes, this is worth your time. How on Earth more people don’t plow into each other is beyond me. And you think 494 is rough? Robert Krulwich from NPR has the story (and video); here’s an excerpt: ”I’ve been to New Delhi where traffic is frightening. I’ve seen pictures of Nairobi and Bangkok, where it’s even scarier. But Ho Chi Minh City? The town we used to call Saigon? I don’t think I’d put myself in a truck, car, bike or even a Sherman tank in that town. This video opens in the scariest traffic circle I could imagine — actually, it’s beyond imagining — where bikes, cars and people seem simultaneously, collectively and individually heading straight at each other (when you look, just count the vehicles and people on collision course; there are at least two or three in every frame). It’s a metropolitan circle of death, and yet …”

Climate Stories….

Climate Change Can Kill Your Investment Returns. Here’s a video from Motley Fool and DailyFinance that made me do a double-take: “The planet is warming up — and you may not even realize how much of a profound effect it can have on your portfolio. Climate change is responsible for more extreme weather events and increasing water scarcity, for instance, presenting profound implications for companies. A warming planet poses significant risks — ones that investors too often ignore. Anheuser-Busch Inbev learned this the hard way back in 2001, as you’ll hear in the following video. But it’s not all downside. Cemex is providing solutions to the climate-change challenge. The company’s products improve building efficiency, reduce carbon footprints in the built environment, and more…”

Losing Fight With Climate Change, Locales Around The World Find Ways To Live With It. The AP and Washington Post has a comprehensive look at what some large cities around the world are already doing to try and become more resilient, in the face of rising sea level and more extreme storms. Here’s an excerpt: “From Bangkok to Miami, cities and coastal areas across the globe are already building or planning defenses to protect millions of people and key infrastructure from more powerful storm surges and other effects of global warming. Some are planning cities that will simply adapt to more water. But climate-proofing a city or coastline is expensive, as shown by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s $20 billion plan to build floodwalls, levees and other defenses against rising seas. The most vulnerable places are those with the fewest resources to build such defenses, secure their water supplies or move people to higher ground. How to pay for such measures is a burning issue in U.N. climate talks, which just wrapped up a session in the German city of Bonn...” (photo: AP).

How Climate Change Makes Wildfires Worse. Mother Jones has the story – here’s an excerpt: ”…Big wildfires like Colorado’s thrive in dry air, low humidity, and high winds; climate change is going to make those conditions more frequent over the next century. We know because it’s already happening: A University of Arizona report from 2006 found that large forest fires have occurred more often in the western United States since the mid-1980s as spring temperatures increased, snow melted earlier, and summers got hotter, leaving more and drier fuels for fires to devour. Thomas Tidwell, the head of the United States Forest Service, told a Senate committee on energy and natural resources recently that the fire season now lasts two months longer and destroys twice as much land as it did four decades ago. Fires now, he said, burn the same amount of land faster. We can expect “as much as a fourfold increase in parts of the Sierra Nevada and California” in fire activity across the rest of this century, says Matthew Hurteau, assistant professor of ecosystem science and management at Pennsylvania State University…”

Photo credit above: “El Paso County Sheriff’s Deputy Dan Cukowski helps evacuate Linda Davies and her horses during the Black Forest Fire on June 11.” Jerilee Bennett/MCT/ZUMAPRESS

Climate Change Could Increase Areas At Risk Of Flooding By 45 Percent. Here’s the intro to a story at The Atlantic Cities: ”Rising seas and increasingly severe weather are expected to increase the areas of the U.S. at risk of floods by up to 45 percent by 2100, according to a first-of-its-kind report released by the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday. These changes could double the number of flood-prone properties covered by the National Flood Insurance Program and drastically increase the costs of floods, the report finds. The report concludes that climate change is likely to expand vastly the size and costs of the 45-year-old government flood insurance program. Like previous government reports, it anticipates that sea levels will rise an average of four feet by the end of the century. But this is what’s new: The portion of the US at risk for flooding, including coastal regions and areas along rivers, will grow between 40 and 45 percent by the end of the century. That shift will hammer the flood insurance program. Premiums paid into the program totaled $3.2 billion in 2009, but that figure could grow to $5.4 billion by 2040 and up to $11.2 billion by the year 2100, the report found. The 257-page study has been in the works for nearly five years and was finally released by FEMA after multiple inquiries from Climate Desk and Mother Jones…” (photo credit: Reuters).

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ABOUT ME

Paul Douglas

Welcome to the WeatherNation blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I’ll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. I’m still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I’ve started 5 weather-related companies. “EarthWatch” created the world’s first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations – Steven Spielberg used our software in “Jurassic Park” and “Twister”. My last company, “Digital Cyclone”, personalized weather for cell phones. “My-Cast” was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation. I also write a daily weather column for The Star Tribune startribune.com/weather And if you’re on Twitter, you’ll find me @pdouglasweather

Monsoon Season Kicks Off in the Southwest

The rain has arrived in the Southwest! Check out the Tucson photo above from the University of Arizona. Vertically developing cumulus clouds are a sign of rains to come.

Monsoon Season. Contrary to popular belief, the Southwest does indeed have  a monsoon season where the winds shift around. Early in the summer, the winds continue in a westerly pattern, blowing in dry air from the South.

Once summer is underway, the area of high pressure drifts northward and thus opens the Gulf of Mexico to allow more moisture to fuel thunderstorms.

The monsoon in Salt Lake City, UT isn’t nearly as noticeable, but nevertheless it is still quite impressive.

Monsoon rains in Denver last from  the spring right through the summer and taper off around fall.

Meanwhile, Tucson has a very distinct monsoon cycle. April, May, and June are the driest months by FAR in the Tucson region, but they make up for it with soaking rains from July and August.

In just the last 24 hours alone, Tucson has seen nearly 4 tenths of an inch. Meanwhile, Parker Canyon Lake got over an inch of some much-needed rain.

This is the rain forecast for the next 48 hours or so will add to these recent rains. The Denver metro is in for another third of an inch.

Remember, if you get any photos during monsoon season (or video) please share it with us! Head to www.weathernationtv.com for all the latest updates. And have a Happy Father’s Day! -Meteorologist

Happy Father’s Day! Doppler In Your Pocket (maps still look more like mid-May than mid-June)

From Too Dry To Too Wet – Some Farmers Are Not Happy. Here’s an excerpt from this week’s edition of Mark Seeley’s WeatherTalk Newsletter: ”…The rainfall and wet soils have resulted in prevented planting for some corn fields, where producers will be able to collect crop insurance payments if they don’t plant corn. Others may opt to plant corn, but not for grain, just for silage to feed livestock. Some soybeans are still being planted late, along with some late planting of alfalfa fields which were so adversely affected by winter stress. Alfalfa hay cutting has progressed very slowly with little of the hay harvest completed…”

30 Day Rainfall Percent of Normal. Much of central Minnesota and the immediate Twin Cities has picked up twice as much rain as normal in the last 30 days, according to NOAA. Farms over southeastern Minnesota have seen 2 to 3 times more rain than average since May 15.

Colorado’s Most Destructive Wildfire. The Black Forest fire is now 55% contained, at last report, but at least 483 homes have been destroyed by this, Colorado’s most destructive blaze on record. Over 1,000 firefighters are still on the scene and they’re making significant progress. Here’s the latest from inciweb.org.

Interactive Wildfires Map Tracks The Blaze In Colorado. Here’s another good resource from Climate Central: “Aided by strong winds, the wildfire south of Denver has now become the most destructive fire in Colorado’s history, surpassing 2012′s Waldo Canyon fire. It’s burning through thousands of acres of land, and firefighters are struggling to contain the blaze. The 15,000 acre Black Forest fire has destroyed at least 360 homes and forced the evacuation of nearly 40,000 people from areas in and near Colorado Springs, the state’s second-largest city. The Black Forest fire is one of three wildfires currently burning across Colorado.You can monitor the wildfires with Climate Central’s interactive wildfires map. The flame icons represent wildfires currently active in the lower 48 states and Alaska, including the Black Forest fire in Colorado. Hover over a given fire to see its name, and if you zoom in you’ll be able to see the outline of the area that’s burning — the so-called fire perimeter. If you click within the perimeter, a window pops up showing the fire’s size in acres, the amount by which the perimeter has grown or shrunk over the past 24 hours, the fraction of the fire that has been contained and other data. There’s also a link to an even more detailed report…”

An Early Start To Wildfire Season. In today’s edition of “Climate Matters” we examine wildfire trends over the western USA. Wildfire season is now an average of 78 days longer than it was in 1970. Dry areas are becoming even drier, and when winter snows are lighter than average it can set the stage for a long, hot, fiery season. Such will be the case in 2013.

You’re Going To Get Wet. The Economist reports that Americans are building beachfront homes, even as ocean levels continue to rise. What’s the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results? Better to buy a home 5 blocks inland…and be patient. Here’s an excerpt: “Before Hurricane Sandy tore through New York and New Jersey, it stopped in Florida. Huge waves covered beaches, swept over Fort Lauderdale’s concrete sea wall and spilled onto A1A, Florida’s coastal highway. A month later another series of violent storms hit south Florida, severely eroding Fort Lauderdale’s beaches and a chunk of A1A. Workers are building a new sea wall, mending the highway and adding a couple of pedestrian bridges. Beach erosion forced Fort Lauderdale to buy sand from an inland mine in central Florida; the mine’s soft, white sand stands out against the darker, grittier native variety. Hurricanes and storms are nothing new for Florida. But as the oceans warm, hurricanes are growing more intense. To make matters worse, this is happening against a backdrop of sharply rising sea levels, turning what has been a seasonal annoyance into an existential threat…”

Survivors Blame KFOR Meteorologist For Tornado Deaths. I know Mike Morgan down in Oklahoma City; he’s a friend and a gifted meteorologist. I’m sorry he’s at the center of controversy over comments he made before the El Reno EF5 tornado spun up, recommending that people without basements, in the direct path of the tornado, consider getting into their vehicles. The result was gridlock, massive traffic jams, and many people think it was the wrong message to send to the public. It’s a really tough call when you have an extreme tornado moving in, and less than 1 in 10 viewers have basements. Statistically your odds are still better staying home, riding out the tornado in a closet or bathtub, than getting into your vehicle (or a nearby drainage ditch or storm sewer, which may quickly overflow as a tornadic storm passes overhead). That’s apparently what happened on May 31 in El Reno. Here’s an excerpt from TVSpy: “The Oklahoman has published a story that suggests KFOR meteorologist Mike Morgan was to blame for the deaths of five Oklahoma City family members after they followed his advice about escaping an oncoming tornado. Virginia Shrum said her brother talked about how he had hidden down in the tunnel from a tornado three years before. The survivors said they were swayed to flee the apartment by warnings from Mike Morgan, KFOR-TV chief meteorologist. The article said 11 people hid in a long drainage tunnel behind the family’s apartment to escape the oncoming twister. They were swept from the tunnel by a flash flood...”

Nicaragua Still Thinks It Can Build A Better Canal Than Panama After 200 Years of Trying. Having just been thru the Panama Canal last winter, I found this article at Quartz fascinating – is there really room for two transoceanic canals? Here’s a clip: “Today, Nicaragua’s parliament is expected to approve proposals by a Chinese consortium to build a canal across the country to rival that of Panama. (Update: The plan has been approved.) The $40 billion project could double Nicaragua’s GDP and create 40,000 construction jobs over an 11-year construction period. The idea of building a canal in Nicaragua is nothing new. For most of the 19th century, experts considered a Nicaraguan canal more feasible than one through Panama or another proposed route through Mexico. US tycoon Cornelius Vanderbilt led a project to carry goods across Nicaragua by stagecoach and steamship as a prelude to building a canal, for which he even won a concession. Thirty years later, US president Ulysses S. Grant endorsed the Nicaraguan route as the cheapest and easiest, pegging the cost (p.110-111) at $52,577,718.00—though he admitted that, with probable delays, it could stretch to $100 million. A Nicaraguan canal would be more cost-effective than a Panama one, he argued, where builders would encounter tougher terrain…”

Photo credit above: “Even after Panama’s canal expansion is complete, Nicaragua’s would be bigger.” AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco.

The Worst Charities: Get Information Before You Make Donation. Here’s an excerpt of an eye-opening report from Marketplace.org (which puts on a fine radio show on Public Radio, btw): …”The top of our list is an organization called Kid’s Wish Network. They operate out of a metal warehouse in Holiday, Fla. Over the past decade they’ve raised millions of dollars. Of that, about 80 percent — $110 million — has gone to professional solicitors, $4.8 million has gone to the charity’s founder and his consulting firm, and only $0.03 of every $1 that they’ve raised has actually spent directly on helping kids,” says Taggart. “Most of the causes are popular causes that appeal to donors and may sound like a more well-known group.” To make sure that you’re sending your money to good places, Taggart says there are many resources to research charities online.”

The top 10 worst U.S. charities:

See the full list

Climate Stories….

Global Warming Conversation Changes. We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a planetary scale, but that won’t reduce the need to adapt to this new world. Adaptation is a fact of life, as discussed in this article at NBC Philadelphia; here’s an excerpt: “…University of Michigan professor Rosina Bierbaum is a presidential science adviser who headed the adaptation section of the administration’s new National Climate Assessment. “It’s quite striking how much is going on at the municipal level,” Bierbaum said. “Communities have to operate in real time. Everybody is struggling with a climate that is no longer the climate of the past.” Still, Bierbaum said, “Many of the other developed countries have gone way ahead of us in preparing for climate change. In many ways, the U.S. may be playing catch-up.” Hurricanes, smaller storms and floods have been a harsh teacher for South Florida, said Jacobs. “Each time you get walloped, you stop and scratch your head … and learn from it and make change,” she said. “It helps if you’ve been walloped once or twice. I think it’s easier to take action when everybody sees” the effect of climate change and are willing to talk about being prepared…” (photo credit: Marco Beltrametti).

How Climate Change Makes Wildfires Worse. Mother Jones has the story – here’s an excerpt: ”…Big wildfires like Colorado’s thrive in dry air, low humidity, and high winds; climate change is going to make those conditions more frequent over the next century. We know because it’s already happening: A University of Arizona report from 2006 found that large forest fires have occurred more often in the western United States since the mid-1980s as spring temperatures increased, snow melted earlier, and summers got hotter, leaving more and drier fuels for fires to devour. Thomas Tidwell, the head of the United States Forest Service, told a Senate committee on energy and natural resources recently that the fire season now lasts two months longer and destroys twice as much land as it did four decades ago. Fires now, he said, burn the same amount of land faster. We can expect “as much as a fourfold increase in parts of the Sierra Nevada and California” in fire activity across the rest of this century, says Matthew Hurteau, assistant professor of ecosystem science and management at Pennsylvania State University…”

Photo credit above: “El Paso County Sheriff’s Deputy Dan Cukowski helps evacuate Linda Davies and her horses during the Black Forest Fire on June 11.” Jerilee Bennett/MCT/ZUMAPRESS

Climate Change Could Increase Areas At Risk Of Flooding By 45 Percent. Here’s the intro to a story at The Atlantic Cities: ”Rising seas and increasingly severe weather are expected to increase the areas of the U.S. at risk of floods by up to 45 percent by 2100, according to a first-of-its-kind report released by the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday. These changes could double the number of flood-prone properties covered by the National Flood Insurance Program and drastically increase the costs of floods, the report finds. The report concludes that climate change is likely to expand vastly the size and costs of the 45-year-old government flood insurance program. Like previous government reports, it anticipates that sea levels will rise an average of four feet by the end of the century. But this is what’s new: The portion of the US at risk for flooding, including coastal regions and areas along rivers, will grow between 40 and 45 percent by the end of the century. That shift will hammer the flood insurance program. Premiums paid into the program totaled $3.2 billion in 2009, but that figure could grow to $5.4 billion by 2040 and up to $11.2 billion by the year 2100, the report found. The 257-page study has been in the works for nearly five years and was finally released by FEMA after multiple inquiries from Climate Desk and Mother Jones…” (photo credit: Reuters).

Map: Places That Will Flood More Often Due To Global Warming. Slate has the story – here’s an excerpt: ”…The FEMA study is based on the assumption that sea levels will go up by 4 feet in the next 86 years. But a report released last year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that sea level rise could be more than 6 feet. Whether it’s 4 feet or 6 feet, rising seas cause shoreline erosion and recession, and create greater surge risk in the event of major storms. The FEMA report also notes that flooding around rivers will likely become worse in a warming world, due to changes in precipitation frequency and intensity. Population growth, which causes increases in paved areas and changes in runoff patterns and drainage systems, will affect the amount of flooding from rivers…”

* the PDF report referenced above is here.

Jim Hansen: Climate Change Is The GOP’s Worst Nightmare. Here’s a snippet from an interview at The Denver Post: “Many conservative politicians have been among climate change deniers, but ignoring the science will led to something the GOP dreads even more — big government. So argued Jim Hansen, who since 1988 has been in the forefront of the issue, first as a NASA scientist and more recently as a free-agent activist, in an interview Thursday…”

How EPA Fights Climate Change Even When Congress Doesn’t Want It To. Yahoo! News has the story; here’s a clip: “Environmental groups have a tough time getting Congress to do what they want. Case in point: In the early months of 2010, the Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Environmental Defense Fund waged an all-out campaign urging the Senate to pass a sweeping climate-change bill backed by President Obama and leaders in the Democratic-controlled Senate. The measure crashed and burned that summer. But the green groups—and Obama’s top environmental officials—knew they could resort to a different tactic: lawsuits to compel executive action…”

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ABOUT ME

Paul Douglas

Welcome to the WeatherNation blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I’ll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. I’m still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I’ve started 5 weather-related companies. “EarthWatch” created the world’s first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations – Steven Spielberg used our software in “Jurassic Park” and “Twister”. My last company, “Digital Cyclone”, personalized weather for cell phones. “My-Cast” was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation. I also write a daily weather column for The Star Tribune startribune.com/weather And if you’re on Twitter, you’ll find me @pdouglasweather