Scratch and Sniff?
Thanks to my good friend Jill Stewart Kellar for the picture below who said that she wished the picture was ‘scratch and sniff’ – LOL – It looks AMAZING, but it can’t smell it!
Here’s an interesting look at wind flow across the country. Note the southerly wind flow east of the two low pressure systems. This is responsible for the warm and humid air that has been in place across the middle part of the country as of late. This has also helped set the stage for all the severe weather that we’ve seen over the last few days. See the latest wind flow map HERE:
Radar From Sunday…
Take a look at how active the radar was across the middle part of the country from Minnesota to Oklahoma. At this on Sunday, there were a number of watches and warnings in progress and there had been reported tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma!
Severe Storm Reports
Here are a few of the storm reports from the very active Sunday across the middle part of the country.
Take a look at this photo taken in Luther, OK from the Oklahoma County Sheriff’s office on Sunday evening.
It’s amazing what technology can do in this day in age… Take a look at the radar image from Oklahoma Sunday evening northeast of Oklahoma City, OK near Fallis, OK. The classic “Hook Echo” with red and green close to gether on the velocity signature indicatues intense rotation.
This is what it looked like in a 3D view… It’s almost like you can see the tornado touching the ground!
Thanks to my good friend Amy Bettwy for the picture below… in the new radar upgrade to Dual Pole Radar, you can actually see a “TDS” or a Tornado Debris Signature! In the image below, you can see a dark spot over Fallis, OK where the Dual Pole radar may actually be picking up debris vaulted high in the air!
Severe Threat Continues…
The Storm Prediction Center continues the severe thunderstorm threat for Monday across the middle part of the country. Keep in mind that this threat will likely change as the storm continues to settle into the middle part of the country. Severe Threat Monday …SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY…
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX…ON THE ORDER OF 60KT AT 500 MB…IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO NRN OK BY 21/00Z.
WHILE LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY DISTURB LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN KS INTO MO…IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE OF
APPROACHING SPEED MAX SHOULD SHARPEN SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS OK BY
PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS…A FEW SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF HAIL…MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SERN KS/MO ALONG THE NOSE OF
VEERED LLJ. THIS CONVECTION MAY TEMPORARILY DISPLACE THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT OR PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT BECOMES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 90S. ALONG/NORTH OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET
CORE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SUCH THAT DEEP CONVECTION
WILL EASILY DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO MO AND SHARPENING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FARTHER WEST. IN
FACT…TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20-21Z ACROSS OK WHERE SBCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. FORECAST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR…IN EXCESS OF 50KT THROUGH 6KM…AND THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY
MOIST WARM SECTOR FAVOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES…AT LEAST
THROUGH MID EVENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH TIME ONE OR MORE
MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER OK. AMPLE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU OF TX SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
…UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES…
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAX WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS IA/IL INTO MN/WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO INCREASE UVV ACROSS A FAIRLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF SHARP WARM FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM LOW NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER…EWD INTO NRN WI AT PEAK
HEATING. WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE/SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION…STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL
IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MN/WI AND SBCAPE COULD EASILY RISE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG. DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS AND WITH RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD BASES ISOLATED TORNADOES…IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL MAY BE OBSERVED.
Severe Threat Tuesday …SYNOPSIS…
SLIGHT WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LINGERING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD…AS A DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE
WRN/NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL U.S.
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST.
…UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX…
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING INTERVENING DAYS IS YIELDING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS OF THE DAY 3
/TUESDAY/ SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ATTM…IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT — MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD — SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS
EWD PROGRESSION SLOWS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDS AND ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON…SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON — PARTICULARLY FROM THE SERN OK/WRN AR VICINITY SWWD INTO
CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON…BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED — WITH
COVERAGE DEPENDING TO SOME DEGREE UPON TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES DAY 2 AND THEN SHIFTING INTO TX DAY 3.
WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND LIKELY-TO-BE STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL TX…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER –
PRIMARILY VERY LARGE HAIL — WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER…WITH
QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CONCENTRATION…WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.
FARTHER N — ACROSS MO AND AS FAR NEWD AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION…THE SCENARIO IS EVEN MORE UNCLEAR…AS MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE…MORE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION — AS
WELL AS GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR DUE TO MORE MERIDIONAL/UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW ALOFT — SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. STILL…LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED. THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT…THOUGH STORMS/LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
Thanks to my good friend Ben Lewis for this picture out of the Twin Cities. Heavy rain and gusty winds was all he reported on what he called a “Lil Baby Chase” – LOL - Thanks Benny!!
Minnesota Storm Reports
Here’s some of the storm reports that were relayed to the National Weather Service on Sunday.
Thanks to my good friends Melissa and Denny Purdy from Rogers, MN. Heavy rainfall on Sunday over an already saturated ground created this small lake in their backyard.
Midwest 7 Day Rainfall
Take a look at the 7 day radar estimates of rainfall. There are several locations that have seen 1″ to 4″+ of rainfall since last week. This should help with the drought situation… It’ll be interesting to see how the drought situation changes after all this heavy rainfall!
More Heavy Rain on the Way…
The same slow moving storm system will be responsible for additional heavy rainfall across the middle part of the country through midweek. There still may be additional 1″ to 3″+ amount by Wednesday!
Thanks for checking in, have a great week ahead! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV
Happy Sunday! We’ve been tracking strong storms across the Central Plains, and have incredible tornado photos to share with you. These storms touched down in rural areas of Nebraska and Kansas last night, doing relatively minimal damage, and resulting in no injuries or fatalities. It was a storm chaser’s dream!
In total, there were over 100 reports of hail damage, with hail stones ranging from 1″ – 2.75″ in size. We saw 20 reports of tornadoes touching down, and over two dozen reports of wind damage as well after these cells swept through the plains.
More storms will be firing later today through the Central Plains. Plenty of components of the atmosphere will need to fall into place to touch off more severe storms, but we’re looking at a very good chance for strong winds, damaging hail, and some tornadoes through the highlighted regions below. The orange region is the primary threat zone, with the best chance of seeing the strongest storms.
This set-up creates a multi-day severe weather threat. As the jet stream and surface low pressure system continue to slowly chug along eastward, expect the threat for strong storms to follow. Here is your threat zone for Monday, including another area of Moderate Risk.
These storms don’t just produce hail and tornadoes, but also torrential rains. Check out some of these record-breaking rain totals from Saturday in the Midwest:
With more rain on the way through Monday, Flood Watches have been issued for most of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. Here are the affected areas:
This is going to set farmers back even farther with spring planting season here across the north, where they are already behind schedule due to the unseasonably cold spring weather this year. How’s the end of May looking? Well, things will remain dry across the Southwest and warmer than average for most of the nation. Get ready — summer is fast approaching!
Stay tuned to WeatherNation throughout the day for the latest updates on our severe weather threats. Also keep your NOAA Weather Radios handy if you are in today’s severe risk zone as conditions will change rapidly. And as always, don’t forget to share your weather scene with us! Head over to www.facebook.com/WeatherNation and upload your weather photos to see them on the air later today. Thanks in advance!
Have yourself a safe and fun Sunday, and a pleasant week ahead! -Meteorologist Miranda Hilgers
Almost two dozen tornado reports occurred on Saturday in Nebraska and Kansas. One of the more photogenic storms was in Rozel, KS. Check out some of the amazing video and photos below!
Severe Weather Threat Ahead
The Storm Prediction Center continues severe weather outlooks for Sunday and Monday across the middle part of the country. Note that the ares highlighted below will likely change, but if you’re in these areas you’ll want to pay attention to local forecasts as strong to severe thunderstorms could be rumbling close to home. Text below via the SPC.
...PLAINS/OZARKS/MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...
A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE /AND-OR
QUICKLY BE REESTABLISHED FROM SATURDAY PM CONVECTION/ ACROSS MOST OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST
OF A NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE.
AIDED BY A SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL BE A POTENTIAL FACTOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH
AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN A RELATIVELY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM
SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY/ONGOING ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING/AGGRESSIVE
DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHERN IA
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK AND
NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX. HERE...MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 3000 J/KG. AIDED BY STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/...SURFACE BASED
TSTM/DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO
INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND
SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHERN OK...PERHAPS BY EARLY OR
MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INDUCED TRIPLE POINT...SOMEWHAT MORE
ISOLATED/HIGHER-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX.
WITH AID OF A DIURNALLY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES /PERHAPS ONE
OR TWO STRONG/ ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE...NEAR THE DRYLINE...A MORE DISCRETE MODE OF SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS /AGAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER-BASED ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT A
LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AND SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS
WELL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
WHILE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD/INTERVENING CONVECTION...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY/DAY 2 ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT AS STORMS/CLOUDINESS WANE THROUGH THE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT THE ONSET OF HEATING TO DRIVE STRONG
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE
PRE-FRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FEATURE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING
JET STREAK AND FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES --
INCREASES...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT/RAPID GROWTH OF INITIAL CONVECTION
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH INTENSIFYING FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE
ROTATION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE CAPE/SHEAR JUXTAPOSITION APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. HERE...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS IN
SOME AREAS. EVEN SO...ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD LINGER
LOCALLY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS -- WITH CONTINUED TORNADO AND
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THREAT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY COOLS/STABILIZES -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.
Simulated Radar for Late Sunday Afternoon/Evening
This is a forecast model of simulated radar for late Sunday afternoon/evening. It appears that things could get quite active for many areas in the middle part of the country. Stay tuned for more!
Large Trough Keeps Weather Unsettled
Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map below. This shows ‘spin’ in the atmosphere. Note the large dip of low pressure over the Central and High Plains. This is wobbling very slowly off to the east and that’s why we have such an extended period of shower and thunderstorm activity across the middle part of the country.
Saturday’s Gully Washer Over Upper Midwest
There were several radar estimates of 1″ to 2″+ across parts of central/southern Minnesota from from Friday and Saturday’s thunderstorm activity. Here are few of the heavier rainfall reports from AM Saturday.
More Heavy Rainfall
NOAA’s HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests that there could still be an additional 2″ to 4″ of rain across parts of the Upper Midwest by midweek next week. This certainly could bring about some flooding concerns… stay tuned for more!
Lake Mille Lacs Officially “Ice Out”
Official “Ice out” dates have been kept for Lake Mille Lacs since 1950. This year, the ice went out on Thursday May 16 and was considered the latest ice out date ever recorded. In contrast, the ice went out on Lake Mille Lacs on March 26th last year and was the earliest ice out date ever recorded… Crazy huh?!? Talk about weather whiplash!
Much of the Spring Season has been a quiet one when it comes to severe weather. It has been a below average season for tornadoes as well, with only 18 preliminary reports coming in for March when the 3-year average is 87 and in April, there were only 83 preliminary reports of tornadoes where a 3-year average is 368. So far, the quiet trend has lingered into May with only 17 preliminary reports coming in for tornadoes. However, the weather turned dangerously severe on this past Wednesday (May 15th) when a preliminary estimated 16 tornadoes rolled through portions of northern Texas with the strongest being an EF-4 with winds around 180 MPH and was about half a mile wide.
The pattern is looking to stay active for the next few days with several days of back-to-back severe weather chances popping up, from the upper Midwest to the Southern Plains.
There was plenty of activity in the very early hours this Saturday morning with flashes of lightning and heavy downpours coming around the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. This suburb of Minneapolis, Minnetonka, was being lite up throughout youtube user weathrlver, journey. He is our very own weather producer, DJ, and he had said he had to pull over for a while because the rain was coming down at such a furious pace.
Speaking of rain, wow, did the St. Paul area see a lot of it! It rained heavily and plentifully across portions of Minnesota. A daily record was almost broken at the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport this morning where almost 1.5″ of rain fell. The previous record was 1.57″ set back in 1892. Storms later on today might come along and add a few more drops into that rain gauge later on this evening. After the showers came and moved on, a hazy picture was left to be found and some rays of sunshine were seen popping through the cloud deck. If enough sunshine comes through, the temps will rise this afternoon and go beyond normal levels, into the mid 80s. It will feel very muggy with all that moisture left around and temps get up that high.
The CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, is a measure of much energy the atmosphere has to fire off severe thunderstorms. Here we show the “Thunderstorm Potential” available later on Sunday afternoon. The darker the colors, the higher the CAPE. There looks to be plenty of potential from central Oklahoma up into northern Illinois.
On Monday, that potential is still rather strong across the southern plains, and looks to be a little bit higher towards the Great Lakes.
The pattern in the jet stream is helping to make the severe potential strong this weekend and into the beginning of the work week. The jet is dipping down across the west and then bending back up towards the northern plains, across the mid-west, and riding up towards the northeast. It is that area right ahead of the bend in the jet stream where we could really see some strong storms fire up. The jet stream is the “river” of steering winds aloft in the upper atmosphere.
The dew points, the measure of the moisture in the atmosphere, is going to be on the plentiful side, as it is going to be flowing freely from the Gulf of Mexico, and up into the plain states. Dry air is going to slide down where the jet stream is dipping out in the west. The border of where the airmasses will be clashing is also where we could see storms fire up; right along the Dry Line.
Temperatures are going to be very warm ahead of the storm system, with highs in some spots approaching record levels. Across the central plains and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley, there could be temps riding up into the 80s and possible 90s. Back into the western areas, cool air is dropping down and temps will be running about 10-15° than normal.
There is a Moderate Risk zone highlighted in orange for Sunday. The slight risk zone covers roughly 9 states, just about all of the plain states.
On Sunday, that threat for severe storms shifts slightly eastward, encompassing more territory and another Moderate Risk zone is up once again. And tomorrow, there could be a higher chance for seeing widespread tornadoes.
By the time we begin the work week, the Slight Risk zone is extending from Michigan to Texas, covering just about 11 states and numerous big cities. Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Dallas could all have to deal with large thunderstorms delivering hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Stay safe and stay tuned right here at WeatherNation for the latest information.
Meteorologist Addison Green (Twitter: @agreenWNTV)
Lovely Weather for a Duck
Thanks to Julie Hickstein for the picture below out of the Twin Cities from Friday. The soggy Friday weather was enough to make even this duck a little weird. Can you spot it?
Stormy Weather Ahead?
Billie Holiday once sang: ”Don’t know why there’s no sun up in the sky. Stormy Weather.” Of course she kept singing and it turned out that it had been raining since her man and her weren’t together anymore… I’ve had this song stuck in my head over the last several days while looking at weather maps. Take a look at NOAA’s HPC 5 day precipitation forecat below. A slow moving/waterlogged Pacific storm will wind up over the middle part of the country through next week and keep shower and thunder activity in place over some of the same areas over the next several days. Some may end up with 2″ to 4″+ by the time this storm wrings itself out next week.
Severe Thunderstorm Threat
This vigorous low pressure system will help to envigorate strong to severe storms this weekend across parts of the Midwest. Hail, high winds and isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Stay tuned to local forecasts if you live in highlighted and surrounding areas this weekend. Keep in mind that highlighted risk areas will likely change through the weekend as more information becomes available…
FRIDAY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SRN NM AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CNTRL KS-OK BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. DESPITE IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...THE
APPROACH OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
/FORCING FOR ASCENT/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. BENEATH THE STOUT EML...HIGH QUALITY BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SAMPLED BY RAOBS OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
/15-16 G/KG 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/...WILL LEAD TO DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FARTHER S OVER OK/KS BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN AN INITIALLY
STOUT CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN EXCESS OF 8-9 DEG C/KM IN COMBINATION WITH THIS RICH MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY /4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE/ OVER PARTS OF KS INTO
ONCE THE CAP IS ERODED IN POCKETS ALONG THE DRYLINE...EXPLOSIVE
UPDRAFTS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND INITIALLY FAVOR LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KT FROM NWRN TX TO WELL INTO THE SUPERCELL
RANGE FROM KS NWD/ WILL PROMOTE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE EARLY
CONVECTIVE MODE. BY THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD...STRONGER LOW LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ E AND SE OF THE KS/CO
LOW OVER PARTS OF WRN KS AND WRN OK...WILL ACT TO ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS
/200-500 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH/ DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A
RESULT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST DURING THE
EVENING WITH PERHAPS A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO OCCURRING. UPSCALE
GROWTH MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH ANY PERSISTENT OR REGENERATIVE
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A LINGERING OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS.
Sunday’s Threat (text below via SPC):
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD THROUGH
THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NEWD FROM CNTRL KS INTO ERN NEB AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDDAY SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE MODELS WEAKEN THE CAP
BY 21Z ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STORMS SHOULD FIRST INITIATE IN NRN AND CNTRL KS...QUICKLY
EXPANDING SWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A SEVERE PRODUCING MCS MAY ORGANIZE
ACROSS ERN KS AND ECNTRL OK...MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z SUNDAY AT TULSA...OKLAHOMA CITY AND KANSAS
CITY SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING FROM SW MO SWWD INTO ECNTRL OK. SUPERCELLS ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME TORNADIC WITH
A CLUSTER OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL OK
AND SE KS WHERE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 400 M2/S2 IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...CELLS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT.
SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EVENING IF A LINEAR MCS CAN
...MID-MO VALLEY/NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S.
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
ACROSS ERN NEB...SERN SD...IA AND SRN MN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE UNCAPPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO TAKE PLACE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING
ACROSS IA AND MN ALONG WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT OMAHA AND DES MOINES AT 21Z SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS MAINLY IN SE NEB AND SRN IA WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE THE GREATER THAN IN AREAS TO THE NORTH. A FEW TORNADOES MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN
ORGANIZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
More on EF4 Tornado in Granbury, TX
On Wednesday evening, there was 16 confirmed tornadoes across northern Texas, one of which was rated an EF4 in Granbury, TX. The image below from the National Weather Service out of Ft. Worth, TX (Courtesy Texas State Police) shows the aerial view of the damage. If you look close, you can actually see some of the homes completely wiped off of their foundation.
…NWS DAMAGE SURVEYS FOR 05/15/2013 TORNADO EVENT… …16 TORNADOES HAVE NOW BEEN CONFIRMED. ALL SURVEY CREWS HAVE
RETURNED FOR THE DAY AND SOME OF THEIR INFORMATION HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THIS UPDATE…
SO FAR 16 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. THE FIRST TORNADO
OCCURRED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY AT 538 PM CDT. THE LAST REPORTED
TORNADO WAS AROUND 1210 AM IN ENNIS.
THIS INFORMATION IS CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY. SURVEY TEAMS WERE
SENT TO JOHNSON COUNTY…HOOD COUNTY…PARKER COUNTY…ELLIS
COUNTY AND MONTAGUE COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO COLLECT DATA…TALK WITH EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND
RESPONDERS…AND EYE WITNESSES…REVIEW RADAR DATA…PICTURES AND
VIDEOS. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IS SUBJECT TO AND
LIKELY WILL CHANGE.
.TORNADO #5 – GRANBURY/HOOD COUNTY…
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.75 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 880 YARDS/0.5 MILES
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO INCLUDING HOMES WIPED
CLEAR OFF THE FOUNDATION. TWO HOMES SUFFERED EF-4 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE
AND SEVERAL MORE SUFFERED EF-3 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.
Raw Video of Damage From EF4 Granbury, TX Tornado
Here’s some aerial damage video over Grandbury, TX.
“Forecasters say the tornado that claimed six lives and destroyed dozens of homes in North Texas is believed to have had winds up to 200 mph. (May 16)”
Wind Map(Bookmark Worthy)
This is a bookmark worthy website for you if you’re interested. I tend to pull this map anytime there are storm system rolling through the country. It does a pretty good with surface features; i.e. fronts/highs/lows/etc. Note the counterclockwise rotation in the wind field across the High Plains. This is the developing low pressure system that will create strong to severe weather potential across the middle part of the country over the next few days. See the animating website HERE:
Thanks for checking in, have a great weekend. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV