WeatherNation Blog

Stormy South More Snows Comin’

Forecast Precipitation Type (8 Day)

Forecast Precipitation Type (8 Day)

Forecast Minimum Temperatures (8 Day)

Forecast Minimum Temperatures (8 Day)


Today opened with the remnants of yesterday’s storms over the south. The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk this morning extending from northern Louisiana ENE into central and northern Alabama.

So far the storms have been producing large hail and gusty winds, with one report of a possible tornado causing downed trees. View the live Storm Reports section of our mapcenter for further details.

The storms will continue to move east throughout the evening and into tomorrow morning with the possibility of more severe storms in the southeast tomorrow, including Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and northern Florida with emphasis on the Panhandle.

The snows and ice we discussed on Wednesday certainly did perform with a flourish, as the remnants of that system are currently moving into the northeastern United States, with mostly rains remaining for New England.

A look at our Medium Range Forecast Precipitation Type Animation shows the east coast low we discussed on Wednesday veering slightly more east than the initial forecast. Because of this snows will not be as far inland as the previous runs showed.

Snow totals could be impressive as the system moves through, with emphasis in the south in South Carolina and east central Georgia, with impressive snows also possible along the coastal areas of New England from Connecticut through Massachusetts and Maine.

To step through possibilities over the weekend we will refer to our Animation again. You may find it helpful to choose “stop” on the controls at the bottom and advance each frame individually. Recall our Medium Range product is at 6 hour intervals, and extends out 8 days. Each frame represents that “if” precipitation should occur in some area, what form would that precipitation likely take? Recall, that each frame represents a 6 hour window, meaning that it represents the previous six hours up to and ending at the valid time on the bottom.

The first frame shows snows possible in the high plains due to a mid level disturbance shooting through the area. Snows with this system will not be overly zealous but will be heavy at times, with areas of south central South Dakota receiving greater than 6″ in some areas. Also evident with this frame is the liquid precipitation and associated thunderstorms we discussed above.

As we advance along to the 48 hour forecast (F048hr) valid Sunday Morning at 7am EST we notice the area of lower pressure we discussed on Wednesday has formed and begun to advance along the mid-atlantic states. Notice at this time frame the forecast shows the possibility of snows in the deep south including Mississippi, Alabama, and Northern Georgia. It will be interesting to see if this plays out. Also at this time frame we have the usual monstrous area of lower pressure sitting off the Pacific Northwest. What will it do? =)

As we zoom along to the 60 hour forecast (F060hr) valid 7pm EST on Sunday, notice how the possibility for snow extends all along the coastal regions and still includes portions of the south in the mix. This is due to surface influences and kinematics elongating the area of lower pressure. Areas as far north as the Northern tip of Maine are forecast to have the possibility of snow at this point.

At this point this particular forecast graphic as you advance through the beginning of next week shows the possibility of snow along coastal areas through Tuesday morning. Shorter term graphics also include the possibility of icing and more restrictive snow totals.

An examination of our Forecast Minimum Temperatures Animation shows why the possibility for snows in the deep south exist. Recall that this product is at 6 hour intervals out 8 days, and that it represents what the minimum temperature is forecast to be over the 6 hour window up to and including the valid time.

Notice the large swath of warmth in the south at the first image, and how as you slowly advance that warmth dissipates to be replaced by the red toi (Temperature of Interest) that represents the freezing mark, or 32ºF. The freezing mark plunges into the deep south so that at least for a time, they will have to suffer as the rest of us do!

The good news is that by next Friday (Mark 6) it seems that the great lakes and the north may finally get to see some above freezing temperatures again!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick


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Nor'easter Or Just More Snow?

Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Precipitation Type (8-day)

Forecast Precipitation Type (8-day)

Our latest Forecast Precipitation Type Animation is similar to our discussions on Monday where snows are projected to blanket the Northern Great Plains and into the northern Great Lakes states over the next two days.

Towns such as Minneapolis, Minnesota are under the gun with Winter Storm Warnings with projected isolated totals of up to one foot of snowfall.

The icing possibility we mentioned on Monday also seems to be in the cards as an ice storm warning has also been issued for portions of Wisconsin where cities such as Beaver Dam, Wisconsin are projected to receive as much as 1/2″ of ice accumulations tomorrow afternoon through Friday Morning.

Our Forecast Precipitation Type Animation shows the beginnings of the event with snows falling across North and South Dakota by midnight tonight with the possibility of mixed precipitation, where by noon tomorrow snows will be falling from the Dakotas covering much of Minnesota, with a stream of possible mixed precipitation beginning along the southern fringes of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and a tinge of northern Illinois. By late Thursday into the Early hours of Friday morning most of the snows will have passed into Michigan with a line of rain extending from near traverse city, south into Indiana.

Speaking of rains, the SPC has issued a slight risk area for tomorrow in their Convective Outlook Category. I’m not overly impressed with what I see. While the possibility of damaging winds and large hail is present, the possibility for tornadoes is marginal, although it does exist.

For a longer outlook of what is to come, note our Medium Range Forecast Precipitation Type Product Animation. I have discussed these products before in that they are designed to be a lower resolution, longer timeline product to be used as a guideline for patterns to come. Click the animation and advance the frames individually (choose stop at the bottom and “forward one”).

Note as you slowly advance the frames that we have an “east coast low” trying to setup and slide north into the northeastern states over the weekend, where by the time Sunday rolls around she appears to dig respectably deep (in all layers though you cant see it here). Could we have a nor’easter on the way! Tough to tell this far out, take the path a few degrees either way and it becomes a non-item. So stay tuned to see what develops! Incidentally I converted the times on these products to automatically display EST or EDT depending upon daylight savings instead of UTC, I will convert the others as well as time allows.

For those on the west coast look around the same days for something that will slingshot onshore. The patterns they do be changing!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick


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Ode To Texas – Something This Way Cometh?

Forecast Temps (8 Day)

Forecast Temps (8 Day)

Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Radar

Forecast Radar


Now that the snows have moved through the northern Plains, Great Lakes States, and the Northeastern U.S., the wonderfully warm temperatures we mentioned will be streaming into the southern plains causing great distress to those of us remaining at or below freezing for the next few days.

Let’s take a look at two examples:

  1. Pecos, Texas – The largest city and county seat of Reeves County, Texas, famous for early cattle drives along the Pecos River, the cantelope, and home of the world’s first rodeo on July 4, 1883 (ref) will enjoy a high temperature of 85ºF today, near 90ºF through Thurdsay, and low 80s all the way through Sunday, with little chance for precipitation. Low temperatures will be around 50ºF through Friday, then dropping off over the weekend.
  2. Fort Stockton, Texas – Home of the world’s largest roadrunner Paisano Pete, whose military fort was founded in 1859 and named for Robert Field Stockton, an infamous naval commodore involved in the capture of California during the Mexican-American War, and later U.S. Senator (ref), will enjoy a high temperature near 80ºF today, around 90ºF tomorrow and Wednesday, mid 80ºF on Thursday, then near 80ºF through the weekend. Low temperatures will waver between the low to mid 50s through Friday, then begin to taper off a bit.

Respectable rains and snows will continue for the west and into the Rockies for the first few days of the week. Fairly impressive totals can be expected with emphasis in the higher terrains of Colorado, Idaho, and California. However something interesting looks to be in our future.

Notice our Forecast Animations of Precipitation Type and Radar. Light snows will stream across the northern tier with a teenie clipper on Tuesday and Wednesday, no big deal, a normal thing this time of year.

However, if you use the controls at the bottom of the animation, and slowly advance, what happens on Thursday? It seems we have a little Panhandle Hook coming into play. As the animation continues, notice the difference with this type of setup, in that a larger band of liquid precipitation forms with the associated warm moist air available to the structure, and this animation seems to think we will have a pretty good chance of Freezing Rain / Sleet associated with the development. Difficult to tell at this point, but it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

At the end of the forecast animations above (00z Friday : -5 est), the center of circulation is shown just east of Chicago, with the dividing line between rain / mixed / frozen just west of the windy city. We’ll see what happens!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Clipper Is Moving In!

Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Radar

Forecast Radar


The clipper we have discussed over the last few days has begun its descent into the northern plains. Overnight along the eastern portions of Iowa and northwestern Illinois may see up to around 7″ of snow in places. Use our Precipitation Type Forecast Animation and our Forecast Radar Animation to view pressure differences, areas of projected precipitation type, and precipitation intensities as this system sprints along.

The center of circulation looks to strike Chicago by 10am tomorrow morning, while snows at the leading edge will begin falling late tonight into very early tomorrow morning. As the system passes Chicago tomorrow morning, more snows will fall from the back side of the low as it turns east northeast into the Great Lakes states to where snows will begin falling in Cleveland, Ohio Saturday evening. Southern Michigan, northern Ohio, and extreme northeast Indiana look to have the best opportunities for significant accumulation, up to around 7″ or so in some areas.

By the time Sunday afternoon rolls around the clipper will have reached the northeastern tier of the United States, with snows falling from Maine all the way south southwest into Appalachia. Along the coastal fringes many areas such as Massachussets, Vermont, and Maine will see very cold rains ahead of the snow, until the snows finally overtake them in before the low passes off to the east. View our animations above to see the timing of transitions. The best snows in the northeast will be similar to the last system, where up to 8″ of snow may fall from eastern New York State, through northern sectors of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Rains will accompany the low as a cold front extends southward, stretching as far south as New Orleans. At this time the opportunity for severe weather associated with the cold front seems very remote. There may be some feeble rumblings in Louisiana and Eastern Texas as the rains move through Saturday afternoon, but nothing to be impressed about.


Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Tornado Reports, More Snow & Another Clipper


The thunderstorms came together yesterday for the deep south as we have discussed over the last few days, as of the time of this writing there were five tornado reports received by the SPC, with many wind damage reports that included injuries, fatalities, and the mention of the possibility of a tornado.

Oftentimes, especially in hilly and wooded areas, it takes time before damage can be assessed and determined if the cause was a tornado or winds, thus tornado reports are not immediate in many cases since people may not have seen the event, or if they did, reported it to the appropriate authorities.

A table is below for you that includes tornado reports from the SPC at the time of this writing, as well as select wind damage reports that ‘may’ after investigation by the local NWS offices, be determined to be tornadoes.

A good resource is the Storm Report section of our Mapcenter. The link I have provided is for the specific date of yesterday (February 18, 2009). Note the checklist on the right-hand side of all possible reports available to view.

Additionally, the tables below the map provided allow you to view and sort each category. Take note of “funnel clouds / tornadoes.” At the time of this writing there were 9 funnel cloud reports for Alabama, yet the table below shows no tornado reports for the state. This, quite simply is because a funnel cloud is not a tornado!

However, note the wind reports in the table below for the state of Alabama. The possibility of the damage caused in some instances is stated as being a possible tornado. Once again, if a person did not physically see a tornado, and report it to the correct authorities, the cause of the damage will not be known until a local NWS official inspects the site to determine if perhaps straight-line winds caused the damage or a tornado.

With yesterday’s storms, either is a distinct possibility for some of the events, especially since the tables I provided below are a mere fraction of the total for the day, note the Storm Report section of our mapcenter for a full listing. It is updated several times throughout the day.

Tornado Reports for February 18, 2009
TimeLocationCountySTLatLonComments
2325WARNER ROBINSHOUSTONGA32628363REPORTED ON THE WRB METAR. FUNNEL MOVED OVER RUNNWAYS AT WRB AFB AND THEN DROPPED TO THE GROUND AND INTO THE TREES. (FFC)
05456 S CAIROGRADYGA30798421CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH MANY TREES DOWN 6 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF CAIRO. SEMI-TRAILER TRUCK OVERTURNED. (TAE)
06051 S THOMASVILLETHOMASGA30828398WDIESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES FELLED BY CONFIRMED TORNADO AT THE INTERSTION OF 319 AND PINE TREE ROAD. (TAE)
0620BOSTONTHOMASGA30798379WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN THAT WERE TWISTED AND SNAPPED OFF. WIDESPREAD POWERLINES DOWN AND MANY ROADS IMPASSIBLE. (TAE)
0715VALDOSTALOWNDESGA30858328TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON VALDELL ROAD OFF OF HWY 41 IN VALDOSTA. (TAE)
Select Wind Reports for February 18, 2009
TimeSpdLocationCountySTLatLonComments
2319UNK3 E SELMADALLASAL32428697CHURCH DESTROYED AND A FEW HOMES DAMAGED ON AL HWY 140. TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HIGHLAND AVE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (BMX)
2357UNK6 SSW WATKINSVILLEOCONEEGA33788345POSSIBLE TORNADO. EMA DIRECTOR REPORTS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE STARTING ON U.S. 441 AT MILE MARKER 2-3 AT TAPPIN SPUR ROAD. DAMAGE CONTINUES EAST TO HALE ROAD AND COLHAM ROA (FFC)
0010UNK11 W WASHINGTONWILKESGA33748294POSSIBLE TORNADO. EMA DIRECTOR REPORTS SIGNIFICANT PATH OF DAMAGE BEGINNING IN THE TYRONE COMMUNITY INT HE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY NEAR GEORGIA HIGHWAY 44 AND CONTIN (FFC)
0015UNK6 WSW EATONTONPUTNAMGA33298348*** 1 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE FROM WILLARD TO EATONTON…ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE CITY. ONE BUSINESS IN EATONTON COMPLETELY DES (FFC)
0050UNK3 NNE ROCK MILLSRANDOLPHAL33198526NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND TWISTED IN REMOTE AREAS NORTH OF ROCK MILLS NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE DISCOVERED AT DAYLIGHT. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (BMX)
0100UNK6 W MANSFIELDNEWTONGA33528384POSSIBLE TORNADO. ROOF BLOWN OFF A MOBILE HOME. AT LEAST 12 TREES DOWN ON GEORGIA HIGHWAY 36 NEAR HENDERSON MILL ROAD. A BARN IN THE AREA WAS ALSO DESTROYED. (FFC)
0130UNKMORELANDCOWETAGA33298477POSSIBLE TORNADO. TWELVE TO 15 HOMES DAMAGED SOUTH OF MORELAND NEAR THE MERIWETHER COUNTY LINE AND GEORGIA HIGHWAY 54…HINES ROAD…AND BEAR CREEK ROAD. A ROOF WAS BLO (FFC)
0340UNKSPARTAHANCOCKGA33288297*** 1 FATAL *** POSSIBLE TORNADO…SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES AND A CHURCH DESTROYED IN THE HICKORY GROVE COMMUNITY. 1 FATALITY OCCURRED WHEN A PERSON WAS THRO (FFC)
0348UNK3 E SPARTAHANCOCKGA33288292*** 2 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO. EMA DIRECTOR REPORTS THAT A HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED EAST OF SPARTA BETWEEN THERE AND THE WARREN COUNTY LINE. TWO RESIDENTS IN THE (FFC)
Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Precipitation Type

Forecast Radar

Forecast Radar

Forecast Temperatures (8 Day)

Forecast Temperatures (8 Day)


On to other news for the day, a blizzard warning was issued for the Michigan U.P. which as you know from our previous writings was a possibility. Note our Advisory Center for complete details.

The snows we have discussed with the latest system have stormed through with respectable tenacity, and more will continue to fall through the weekend. Our Forecast Precipitation Type Animation, and Forecast Radar Animation show the snows with the initial storm lingering in the northeast through the weekend, with the lake affect areas we have discussed on the eastern shores of Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie, still having sizable accumulations yet to come, and of course areas in New England, including Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, and northeastern New York State.

Of course let us not forget our zippy little clipper setting up to move through. Our animations above show that she will enter the northern boundary of our beloved country on early Friday morning with light snows falling along Montana and North Dakota. Then with the speed of a cat finding himself in a doghouse will breach the border of Illinois on Saturday with snows falling from Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota into Windy City.

By the time Sunday rolls in the low will have arched all the way through the Great Lakes states, with the leading edge spreading snows into the Northeastern United States and only lingering snows left by the time Monday morning rolls around.

We must cover the temperature scenarios that we have addressed the last few days, as our latest Forecast Temperature Animation shows that Florida will once again have below freezing temperatures descend in earnest on Monday morning causing concern for citrus growers, and of course my morning Sunny D!

The cool and cold temperatures will slowly creep in over the weekend to encompass the entirety of the deep south by Monday morning, with hope in the future as the temperatures retract by midweek.

By next Wednesday, Texas will bask in glorious warmth with temperatures in the 80s extending from the Mexican border all the way to the Texas Panhandle, that look to hold on and cover most of Texas by next weekend!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

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