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Today’s Convective Outlook is further explained by a large hatched area included in the SPC’s Tornado Probability Outlook, which is defined as an area with 10% or greater probability of an EF2-EF5 tornado occurring within 25 miles a point.

Additional probabilities of interest are those of Damaging Winds, which cover the same basic spatial extent as the convective outlook above.

An overall view for today’s events, is that since unidirectional shear is predominant in the matrix, linear storms later in the day are preordained. However, forecast shear profiles do show significant promise, if development occurs, for the likelihood of long lived tornadoes based upon the ability for initial updrafts to occur, for if they do they will quickly become sustained as individual supercells.

Regardless how the above develops, one thing seems certain that today will also be one of sustained bow segments which will have a dramatic capacity for strong winds causing felled trees, power lines and the like.

Our Forecast Precipitation Type Animation has been holding true fairly well with the development of the snows in the Great Lakes States and the northeast. It is fascinating to review these forecasts, and compare them to our Radar Center, for there on the top right-hand side you can choose the “fronts” overlay, which shows frontal boundaries, isobars, and pressure centers. Compare the forecast precipitation type with our live radar, and see how the precipitation matches up!

Snows will continue basically as we have stated over the last few days, with the areas of highest concentrations still in the New England states, specifically Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, and western New York State. Pockets of increased snowfall will also exist in the normal lake affect areas along lake Erie, and Ontario.

Our little zippy clipper is still on track to sweep through the northern plains into Chicagoland by early Saturday. Snowfalls will not be dramatic as is usual with such a system, perhaps a dusting up to maybe 3″ in some areas.

As the clipper sweeps through Chicagoland and into the Great Lakes States Saturday rains will begin sweeping from the Tennessee Valley into the South on Saturday and into Sunday covering most of the south from Louisiana east through the weekend.

View both our Forecast Precipitation Type Animation and our Forecast Radar Product to view and compare precipitation types, pressure influences, and forecast intensities.

The temperatures distributions we have been discussing are beginning to unfold (8 Day Animation). Temperatures of 0 and below are set into the northern plains today, but more are yet to come. Agribusiness in Florida will need to keep a sharp eye on temperatures over the weekend, and especially Monday morning as a freeze watch will likely be issued to cover much of the Florida Peninsula. As our 8 day Animation shows, after Tuesday morning the deep south will be out of the cold all the way through next Thurdsay (Feb 26) where the south will be enjoying warmer conditions.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on the development of this system, and the clipper in the future.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Our Forecast Precipitation Type Animation shows the distribution of rains in the southeastern flank of the low, snow on the northeastern and northern quadrant, and of course snows on the western side as the low moves through.

By midnight the snow should be falling Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, the Michigan U.P., and the eastern shores of Lake Michigan. As the low propagates eastward snows should begin invading the New England States, with rains extending from central PA, south to Georgia along the mid-Atlantic States.

It would not be surprising as this system develops to see a blizzard watch and / or warning issued as the winds in many areas will be respectable. However, at this time none have been issued, and the key factor will be the intensity of the winds versus timing and type of the precipitation available.

While the SPC has issued convective outlooks for today and tomorrow for the deep south, general thunderstorms and rains should be the predominant features for today. Tomorrow shows a higher risk for potential severe weather in the form of strong winds, with the possibility of a tornado in Alabama or Georgia depending upon the morphing of low-level fields.

Many areas with this system may see snow totals above 4″ but a few have higher possibilities, with emphasis on the eastern shores of Lake Michigan, Maine, Vermont (especially in the White Mountains), New Hampshire, and a bit of northeastern New York State.

The majority of this initial system should slide out of New England by Saturday, but we also have a nice little zippy clipper that will move through the northern Plains beginning early Friday, and swinging eastward to invade the Chicagoland late Friday into Saturday. Note again our Forecast Precipitation Type Animation, and of course our Forecast Radar Animation to compare types of precipitation, timing, associations with pressure fields, and intensities.

The temperatures we have discussed look to be on track as well, with our Forecast Temperature (8 day) Animation showing cooler temperatures descending into the southeast by Friday Morning, with a lesser threat of Wind Chills at that time.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on the development of this system, and the clipper in the future.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Our Forecast Precipitation Type Animation (above left) gives an idea of the progression of the low. However as I have often stated, model data too far in advance is a tricky thing, such as an attempt to discern the exact line between rain and snow, or forecast exact intensities of precipitation. However, you should find the above to be a reasonable representation of what is to come.

The leading edge of the low will be divided into rains on the southeastern quadrant, with a dividing line of rain, mixed, and snow up to the eastern quad, with the exception of snows occurring in higher elevations such as the Blue Ridge Mountains, while the northern sector will be mostly snow.

As the center of circulation trudges off to the east, the ‘wrap around’ snow will continue on the nortwestern flank of the storm through Friday which is the end of the animation above.

You may also compare the Forecast Precipitation Type product above, with our Forecast Radar Animation. Recall the difference between the two products, is that on the Forecast Precipitation Type product, we like to overlay forecast pressures and pressure centers, with the type of precipitation that is forecast to occur. With the forecast radar, the goal is to discern that over each 3 hour period, what is the type and intensity of precipitation that is forecast to occur within each three hour interval, ending at the valid time of the product.

As the low moves along, colder air will descend a bit into the northern plains. Our Forecast Temperature Animation (recall this products is 8 day!) shows a dab of 0ºF and below air slinking into the northern plains on Thursday, then again over the weekend, but not to the enormously offensive extent that we had to endure in January!

Wind chill temperatures will not be as bad as one might expect from the temperature animation above. Note our Forecast Wind Chill Temperature Animation. While the low temperatures will exist on the days mentioned above, the low will have already passed by so winds will be quite mild, thus not driving down forecast wind chill temperatures to the extent they otherwise would be.

We’ll keep an eye on this developing storm to see how it will look in the days to come.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

Our Radar Center displays the intensity of this snowfall and the associated watches and warnings currently in our Advisory Center call for the snow to continue through this evening.

The southeastern United States will gain some much needed relief in the form of rains and general thunderstorms over the weekend. Our Forecast Precipitation Type and Forecast Radar animations call for the rains to begin today in the deep south and gradually propagate east into the southestern United States on Saturday into Sunday.

The west will not be left out of the picture today as a series of disturbances will push through basically for the entire weekend. Our animations above show rains along the coastal areas, and snows in higher elevations gradually moving into the interior west and Rocky Mountains by Saturday, with a sprit of snowfall in the central plains again on Sunday.

Overall we are basically in a normal pattern for this time of year. Temperatures (Forecast Temperatures Animation: 8 day) will remain evenly distributed with south Texas flaunting their warmth in our faces, as several days into the 80s will occur over the next eight days, while Florida will also show some respectable temperatures over the period.

Unfortunately North Dakota will will be invaded with wind chills (Forecast Wind Chill Animation) in the negatives through Sunday, while northern Maine will also see some frigid temps this evening.

The Lone Grove, Oklahoma tornado we have discussed over the last few days was rated as being an EF4 as it entered the south side of town. The complete report has not been submitted yet on all events for the day, more information will be provided when it becomes available.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

Both animations begin at 2.23pm EST and run through the evening into the next day, or basically a 24 hour animation. This means they are quite large =), but do not worry, if you have a reasonably good connection you should be fine.

Each animation has controls at the bottom that allow you to speed up, slow down, start, stop, goto the first image / last image, and advance each frame individually.

Additionally, both animations are overlain with the associated watches and warnings, that allow you to view the timing of storm formation versus lead time on watches and warnings, and of course with the ability to advance each frame individually, you may view your area of interest at ease.

Recall that our Radar Center has many overlays you may choose from (controls top right), that can be overlain as you ‘zoom in’ to an area you are interested in live and ‘on the fly!’ Additionally, you may choose from our standard ‘topo’ map background, or the ‘flat’ map background that is used in the animations above.

We hope you enjoy the animations!

Incidentally, if you are a weather buff, you may also wish to review our discussion from yesterday, and compare to how the events played out on the animations above!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,