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In addition to the blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings covering our storm for today, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk in their Convective Outlook category to cover the thunderstorms we said would also develop today. The moderate risk area is centered over southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. More on this and the second storm we said would develop last week below.

On our next forecast hour valid ending at 8am EDT this morning, the rains are forecast to continue in the same general areas, with mixed precipitation still in the cards for NE Minnesota. Our Precipitation Type Radar still validates this forecast, as does the Freezing Rain Advisory for the state, calling for about 0.25″ of accumulation.

On our next frame valid 11am this morning, notice that the area of lower pressure we discussed all week is forecast to deepen to 991mb, and also dip a tad to the south. In this case it is not forecast to become another ‘Dodge City’ Low as we have had on the last several iterations this winter season, but instead settle near one of my favorite Nebraska cities: McCook, Nebraska. Notice however, if you choose the forecast link for McCook provided, that the blizzard warnings and winter weather advisories are to the north and west of the city, with only wind advisories active for them. This revolves around the previous discussions we have held on the nature of temperature advection and precipitation patterns associated with areas of lower pressure and the nature of their propagation.

Forecast hour F012 valid 2pm this afternoon shows the low beginning its northeasterly trek and a few splotches of rain showing up in Kansas and Nebraska. This could be an area of convective initiation for the thunderstorms we have discussed will develop today. Also notice that as the low begins to propagate northeasterly, the precipitation shield for snow also begins to extend eastward into Nebraska and South Dakota. As the low heads north and east, so does the snow on the western flank of the low.

Forward ahead to F018hr valid 8pm EDT this evening, and notice the snows are beginning to extend into South Dakota, where the breadth of the snows match fairly nicely the areas covered by the blizzard warnings active this morning.

By tomorrow morning F030hr, valid 8am EDT central pressure for the low is forecast to weaken to 995mb, with the snows extend fro NE Colorado NNE through Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, with a smidgen of extreme Northwestern Minnesota.

As 8pm tomorrow rolls around the low becomes considerably weaker with a central pressure of 1000mb, while snows continue to fall over eastern North and South Dakota with and portions of western Minnesota. By 2pm on Wednesday Afternoon (F060hr) she begins heading into Canada with a central pressure of 996mb, and only portions of snow remaining for the U.P. of Michigan and extreme northeastern Minnesota.

Snow accumulations will be most impressive today, with at least a foot of snow occuring in eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and a tad of southwestern North Dakota. Tomorrows totals we be less impressive with the best chance for accumulations of around 8″ or so occuring in central and eastern North Dakota and a smidgen in northwestern Minnesota. Now for the thunderstorms we discussed would occur.

Thunderstorms for Today
Above we mentioned that the SPC has issued Moderate Risk in their Convective Outlook Category for today. The bullseye for their outlook is southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, and their tornado probabilistic category contains a hatched area directly in that bullseye which means that there is a 10% or greater probability for an EF2-EF5 tornado within their defined region.

The reason this outlook has been issued are the shear parameters we discussed would develop today as a very impressive jet streak streams into the region this afternoon as our low above begins ascending into Nebraska with the triple point development we said would occur.

With the impressive 50knt+ deep layer shear, very long lived supercells can develop with sustained updrafts. Now while precipitable water is not very impressive, and a rather hefty cap is present especially over central and eastern Kansas, if storms do develop in the favored environment with the deep layer shear, the strong updraft environment will favor very large hail, very strong winds, and tornadoes if they burst and can sustain themselves, which seems likely.

The storms will likely continue through the evening and into tomorrow morning as additional activity develops both in northern Texas, and existing convective activity heads into Missouri. If you live in and around these areas, today would be a day to pay attention to your NWS Radio (or buy one if you do not own one – I can recommend this Midland or this search will yield alternatives).

More Stuff On The Way?
Last Friday we said it looks like another storm system is likely to form, and this morning’s run seems to verify that prediction. Using our 7.5 Day Precipitation Type Animation, choose “stop” and “forward one” until you reach F090hr Valid 8pm EDT on Thursday, March 26. Notice we now have another area of lower pressure centered north of Roswell, NM, perhaps our alien friends have a weather machine they are using!

Recall this product is at 6 hour intervals instead of 3, so our next frame is valid Friday morning at 2am EDT. Our low has trucked from Roswell into central Oklahoma rather quickly hasn’t it? Well here is where she gets interesting. Forward a few more frames until you reach F114hr Valid 8pm on Friday Evening. Notice she has dug to 990mb causing the more tightly packed isobars (wind), with snow along the northern and western fringes? Well what happens next?

F120hr valid 2am Saturday morning she digs all the way to 985mb and has settled herself over northern Missouri, where by the next frame F126r Valid 8am EDT on Saturday she digs to 980mb and is centered over northwestern Illinois. Whoo Boy! She could be a good one!

By 2pm Saturday afternoon (F132) she maintains an impressive central pressure of 981mb, with snows forecast to possibly reach Chicago, and most of Missouri through Minnesota will be unhappy by this point. Where 8am EDT on Sunday morning she is still holding together centered over northern Lake Michigan with snows trailing around her northern and western flank, and by F162hr valid 8pm EDT Sunday Evening, she begins to weaken a tad but snows should still be falling.

It will be interesting to see in later runs if she digs as deeply as this morning’s run forecasts her to do. Temperatures associated with both of these systems can be viewed on our 7.5 Day Forecast Maximum and Minimum temperature animations. The highpoint being that the northern through the southern plains will endure wintry conditions for the majority of the week.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Let’s start today with a short term outlook from today through the weekend with our 3.5 Day Forecast Ptype Animation beginning with F006hr valid 2pm EDT today. Recall on all our animation products that each window of time represents what is forecast to occur prior to the valid time at the bottom and ending at that time. In the case of this product, it is a three hour window since each frame in the animation is at three hour intervals.

So beginning at 2pm, we see snows with the possibility of mixed precipitation in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This is verified in our Radar Center with our Precipitation Type Radar. Recall with that product you can overlay interesting fields onto the radar product such as current frontal locations, current warnings, current conditions via station models, and change the background to a flat background instead of topo and so forth.

Our Advisory Center also shows a winter weather advisory for northeastern Minnesota associated with the snows valid until 6pm EDT this evening calling for an average of 2-4″ of snow in the region, with higher amounts possible in some areas.

As we advance through F024hr valid 8am EDT on Saturday morning we see the snows progress in a generally ESE direction into Michigan and southern Ontario where by Sunday F048hr Valid 8am EDT chances for snow will exist mostly in the northeastern states from New York State through Maine with some spotty remnants in northern Michigan, where Maine will have a chance for occasional snows through the day, most will be cleared off for the balance by the afternoon.

Looking off to the PNW and back to our first image of F003hr valid 11am EDT today, we see some rains and snows moving in again as we previously discussed would be associated with another surge. Advancing through F012hr valid 8pm EDT this evening, precipitation picks up a bit in the PNW with snows becoming more developed in mountainous terrains. Totals for today will be around 5-7″ or so in the Cascades with the possibility of larger accumulations at higher elevations. At this point the rains we discussed for New Mexico and SW Texas also begin to develop.

Things begin to get interesting for the PNW around F027 Valid 11am EDT Saturday Morning as available moisture begins precipitating as rain in lower elevations in northern California and Oregon, as well as areas of the Northern Rockies. Here as the trough begins to deepen and propagate eastward for the developing storm we discussed for the beginning of next week, excellent orographic forcing will aid in more impressive snows for the Cascade and Sierra mountains up to around 8″ or so for the day, where by Sunday at least another 8″ is likely, with snows also occurring along nearly the entire stretch of the Rockies as everything sweeps inland, albeit with lower overall accumulations with the most impressive totals inland occurring over southwest Montana, and northeast Utah.

By the time late Sunday and early Monday rolls around things become interesting, as the storm that we have discussed coming up next week refuses to die in the models. The last two frames of our 3.5 day Ptype Animation F072 valid 8am EDT Monday, March 23 we see our low over northeastern Colorado forecast to be at 991mb with rains extending along the majority of the northern plains, and fairly tightly packed isobars which translates to winds.

Advance through F081 valid 5pm EDT next Monday, and she is forecast to dig a little deeper to 985mb with rains running along the northern and eastern flanks, and snows on the west, which basically means we will see a triple point develop. The little blotches of green are likely thunderstorms that will form. While general thunderstorms will occur over the weekend, the big ones as we’ve discussed all week will likely occur on Monday unless things develop differently from what the models are currently calling for.

Advance to our last frame for the 3.5 day Ptype Animation F084 Valid 8pm EDT on Monday (here is where it is important to remember that each frame represents what is forecast to occur 3 hours prior to and ending at the valid time. Notice the beautiful rain shield spiraling out of the system to the south, Monday will certainly be an interesting day!

But wait, there’s more! What happened to our system dipping south for a bit, and taking a longer trek to the north and east? Well, let’s see how things differ today with our 7.5 day Ptype Animation. Recall this product is at 6 hour intervals instead of three. Once you open her up, click “stop” and “forward one” until you reach F066hr Valid 2am EDT on Monday.

Here our low is centered over the same region of NE Colorado, now slowly click a few more frames. Remember this product is “twice as fast” when viewing the animation, but in reality simply represents longer windows of time, so you must make careful observations.

Click 3 times and watch the low carefully. Try not to concentrate on the location of the symbol and forecast pressure of the low, but instead on the isobars themselves. Notice that for this forecast run (12z today) that for those three frames today it is not forecast to “dip” and become another Dodge City low, but instead propagates on a nearly pure easterly course until the F084 valid 8pm EDT where she treks northeasterly.

By F108 valid 8pm EDT on Tuesday March 24 she shows a heading of western Minnesota instead of eastern, with a forecast central pressure of 994mb, and by 2pm EDT on Wednesday heads into Canada on the borders of Ontario and Manitoba Provinces.

Also notice around this time the potential for a developing low off the eastern seaboard. Basically starting around 8pm EDT on Monday (F084) notice the very weak developing pressure of 1007mb sitting in the Atlantic with the snows we discussed for Maine. Advance through 8pm EDT on Tuesday (F108) she looks a little healthier, and maintains herself through Wednesday, Thursday, and by Friday at 2am EDT (F162) she really looks healthy at 988mb. However, what if the low were develop slightly closer to the coastline? Or will Nova Scotia simply get nailed, and perhaps a bit of Maine?

Something else to keep our eye on is another developing system next Thursday (F138 on our Animation) valid 2am EDT. Again over northeastern Colorado but look at those forecast isobars… Sheesh! she could be a healthy one too. Tough to tell that far out, but it is something to certainly keep our eye on.

Something else you may wish to view are our forecast Maximum and Minimum temperature animations. On Sunday morning the cold we discussed for the mid-Atlantic through the northeast shows its nasty self and hangs on for the northeast through Tuesday Morning, and as the day rolls along the cold air advection associated with our developing storm barrels into the northern plains. The good news is by next Thursday the majority of the central and southern plains through the northeast will have a brief respite from the cold, so we have something to look forward too!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Beginning with F006hr valid 8m EDT this morning, rains are forecast to begin streaming into the northeastern states, and begin extending along a developing upper level trough through the Great Lakes States and the Midwest. As evening approaches the potential for snows will exist in New York State through Maine into the morning hours tomorrow and into the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. With low precipitable water content and weak forcing, accumulations will not be impressive. There is a chance for weak general thunderstorms in the midwest, but nothing to write home about.

Very scattered and weak precipitation has the potential to form in the southern Rockies and southwest around Friday afternoon and into the weekend as development occurs for our upcoming storm.

Speaking of which our Medium Range Precipitation Type Forecast Animation shows similar, yet interestingly different development than we discussed on Monday. Notice F126hr Valid 8am on Monday, March 23. our Low is situated over NE Colorado / SE Wyoming.

Advance 1 more frame valid 2pm EDT on Monday, notice how she dips just a tad more? It’s almost like she is trying to become another Dodge City Low like we have discussed the last few times doesn’t it? Along with the pressure distributions, also note our Forecast Maximum Temperature Animation at F114hr Valid 8pm Sunday March 22, F138hr and 8pm Monday March 23. Notice the nice warm air advection tongue streaming into the plains for both days (hint use the TOI for 72deg – thin blue line as a guide). This will aid the potential for strong thunderstorms we mentioned on Monday along with a myriad of other factors that I can’t discuss in this format.

Well back to our Medium Range Precipitation Type Forecast Animation, we left off on F132hr Valid 2pm EDT on Monday March, 23. After she dips for a tad into Kansas, notice how she propagates in a more northeasterly direction with this run? This change allows for more ample moisture content, and longer duration over the Dakotas and into Minnesota as she begins shifting easterly through 2pm EDT Wednesday afternoon where our animation ends.

It will certainly be interesting to view later runs to see any shifts in propagation. Our Forecast Minimum Temperature Animation certainly shows the colder air descending into the plains from Sunday through Wednesday afternoon, with the deepest push on our last frame of F180hr Valid 2pm EDT on Wednesday March 25. As you scroll through both maximum and minmum temperature animations, the warmth we’ve discussed for the majority of the nation certainly continues until our storm moves through next week.

More items of interest below:

The big item to begin today’s article is what our Animation above shows starting to form next Sunday and Monday. Now we’ve discussed before how when looking this far out it really is difficult to maintain any degree of certainty, however the last few storms that have appeared on our medium range product, did actually evolve.

To see what we are referring to open the animation, choose ‘stop’ and ‘forward one’ until you reach F156hr valid 2pm EDT on Sunday, March 22. Notice the 996 low sitting in basically southeast Wyoming.

Advance one frame to F162hr, and notice she digs to 990mb with excellent baroclinicity. Forward a few more to F174 valid Monday 8am EDT March 23 and she sits at the border of Minnesota and the Dakotas, and at our last frame F180hr valid 2pm EDT Monday, March 23 she is forecast to exit into Canada through northern Minnesota.

One thing is certain with this type of setup at this time of year, the warm air advection associated with this development will likely trigger strong thunderstorms along the southern flank of the system over the weekend and through the beginning of next week as she develops, we will examine temperature maximums in a bit, and reinvestigate the development later this week.

So what is going on in our immediate future? Well, the snows we discussed last week for the PNW are continuing, our shorter range Precipitation Type Animation shows the rains and snows continuing through at least midweek as the initial push of moisture associated with the deep layered trough will funnel in, until another burst of energy enters the region later in the week.

The rains we discussed for the southeast will continue to swing through and brush the mid-atlantic states (note Animation) before exiting the region around noon on Tuesday.

For Tuesday the majority of the nation from the southwest through the northeast will be precipitation free, until another batch of rain will begin entering from the Midwest through the northeast on Wednesday (note: F054 valid 3am EDT), where at least in this instance precipitation should remain in liquid form until 8am EDT Thursday, where the extreme northeastern states will have a chance of snow on Thursday, where our animation ends.

Picking up our Medium Range Forecast Precipitation Type Animation again from there, we see the opportunity for snow continues through Thursday F078 Valid 8am EDT and and Friday, while snows in the PNW continue through our previous discussion above for the potential of the developing storm.

The good news for the majority of the nation is the warmer temperatures we discussed last week are finally starting to stream in. Our 7.5 day Forecast Maximum Temperature Animation shows warmth beginning to take a foothold on the central U.S. for most of the week until Thursday where cooler temperatures offend the northeast and Great Lakes States a bit, then on next Sunday and Monday we see the strong warm air advection for the central and southern plains associated with our developing system. We shall see how she holds up in later model runs.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Our shorter range Precipitation Type Forecast Product Animation forecasts the potential for snowfall and mixed precipitation in the region through 2pm EDT Saturday Afternoon.

Our Animation also displays the storms we discussed to approach the Pacific Northwest beginning around 2am EDT Saturday morning, and quickly desending from Washington State into northern California and the Rockies, with clearly defined rain/snow boundaries in the higher elevations. The snows are forecast to continue through the weekend until our last valid frame of F084hr Monday 8pm EDT. Foot plus totals in the mountains of Washington and Oregon are certainly a possibility.

Rains are forecast to stream across the south from eastern Texas through the mid-atlantic states over the weekend from Saturday through Sunday. While the potential for occasional general thunderstorms does exist, I do not see anything severe in the making.

Looking past Monday, our Medium Range Precipitation Type Forecast Animation shows the snows in the PNW and Rockies hanging on for much of next week, with the longest potential for accumulation being the northern Rockies.

Starting around next Thursday, March 19 we see the potential for rain turning into snow for the Midwest, and moving into the mid-Atlantic and Northeastern States through next Friday.

While the Florida Peninsula will hog the majority of 72 degree + temperatures over the weekend, next week starts to brighten for the southern Plains, as our Forecast Maximum Temperature Animation shows Texas warming a tad on Sunday, then by Monday very nice warm air advection with highs of 72 degrees streaming as far north as Nebraska, but by next Thursday things start to cool down a tad again =(

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick