There are a ton of graphics I’d like to share today… all pertaining to today’s top weather headline: Alex. We were just waiting to welcome the first hurricane of Atlantic season and sure enough, Alex is now a healthy, Category 1 hurricane in the Gulf (the first June hurricane since 1995).
Hurricane Alex: Visible Satellite
Texas started feeling the symptoms earlier this week and weaker bands from the storm arrived yesterday. Choppy waters have been present along the Coastal Bend all week. The eye became visible on radar earlier today:
Alex's eye visibile on radar. Stormy skies at in North Padre.
Alex’s center will make landfall overnight (around 1 AM central time) in the Tamaulipas state of Mexico. The eye could potentially move right over the city of Bahia Algodones.Prior to making landfall, there are indications that this storm will strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 98 mph. A hurricane is considered a Category 2 storm if sustained winds exceed 95 mph.
Alex could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane before landfall.
Alex will weaken shortly before its center touches land.
There are many questions regarding the oil spill. As many feared, this hurricane will be pushing oil on shore. Winds around a hurricane (or center of low pressure) rotate in a counter clockwise fashion. With the oil spill situation on the east side of this hurricane, south winds will steer that oil onshore.
Archive image: Hurricane vs. Oil - Scenario 2
Keep in mind that the northeast quadrant of a hurricane generally has the heaviest rain, strongest winds and highest storm surge. The Gulf Coast will be feeling this one as the position of the hurricane is ideal for us to feel the worst of it. It’s common to see tornadoes within the bands of the hurricane, and southern Texas’ warning map has been lighting up with tornado warnings:
This hurricane will march its way eastward and much of Texas and even Louisiana will feel the impact of Alex until the end of the workweek. 4th of July weekend is looking unsettled as well, but we certainly won’t be expecting hurricane/tropical storm weather then, though scattered storms my be in store for the area.
Some models are hinting that remnants of this storm could meander into the Midwest. That will throw a wrench into the holiday weekend forecast:
For now, we’ll just have to wait and see. Hoping Mexico, Texas and Louisiana (and BP) will get through this one with minimal problems/damage, but let’s hope they have prepared for the worst.
Hello and happy Tuesday everybody, hope all is well. Quick update today, busy at the WeatherNation office…
We’re still tracking Alex in the Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to become a category 1 hurricane by later today and perhaps a category 2 hurricane just before landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
Look – the outer bands of Alex are already reaching the Coastal Bend of Texas near Corpus Christi – it looks a little dark there:
Hurricane Warnings in Effect:
With the 2010 Hurricane Season underway it is a good idea to run through hurricane safety:
Here’s some info from the National Hurricane Center:
Read more safety info from the National Hurricane Center
Otherwise, it is pretty quite nationwide with a sprawling area of high pressure setting up across the north central part of the country. Looking nice for a longer stretch of time! Enjoy!!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson – WeatherNation LLC
Hello and happy Monday everyone – I hope all is well.
Tropical Storms in both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic basin have been making headlines lately. Over the weekend, Hurricane Celia became a major, category 5 hurricane with gusts nearing 200mph. Darby became a major, category 3 hurricane over the weekend making it the earliest, 2nd major hurricane of the season in the Eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971.
Tropical Storm Alex in the Atlantic is still churning away near the Yucatan Peninsula and is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday morning and perhaps a category 2 by later Tuesday eveing:
Alex to Bring Heavy Rain in Southern Texas
The latest HPC 5 day predicted rainfall map shows nearly 15″ of rain for southern Texas from Alex. I expect to see some Flood watches and warnings posted withing the next few days if this verifies:
Severe Risk Today
The severe threat today is fairly low, but there could be a few storms that develop along the cool front in the East from West Virginia to Mass. with the biggest threat today being wind later today.
That’s all for now, thanks for tuning in on this Monday, have a good rest of the day.
Meteorologist Todd Nelson – WeatherNation
Good Sunday to you all! We are tracking three tropical systems out there as of this morning, one impacting the Yucatan Peninsula and the others being fish storms in the Pacific, your latest World Cup forecast, and a decrease in severe potential over the next few days.
Tropical Depression Alex
First, we are closely watching Tropical Depression Alex drugging his way across the Yucatan Peninsula this morning after making landfall in Belize yesterday evening. Very interesting statement from the National Hurricane Center this morning, stating in their 4 AM discussion that Alex has actually become more organized over land and look like a hurricane on radar overnight instead of falling apart and looking like a typical ragged low-end tropical system.
Alex has weakened into a Tropical Depression as of this morning. The storm is expected to exit the Yucatan into the southwest Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche later today. Once there it is expected that Alex will strengthen once again, eventually reaching Category 1 Hurricane strength before making landfall in Mexico sometime during the day Thursday. However, a couple model runs have the storm lingering longer in the Gulf of Mexico and taking a more northerly track, which causes concern for not only a stronger storm but would lead to a possible landfall in Texas or even Louisiana towards the end of the week. This is due to a high pressure center expected to weaken over the United States. If that were the case, Alex could impact efforts in the Gulf of Mexico concerning the oil spill, which is now going on day 69. I must stress though that currently most tracks do not have this occurring and do have landfall in Mexico, but it is something that bares close watch over the next few days as the weather patterns change within the US. Of course we will keep you update here with the latest over the next days.
Tropical Storms Celia and Darby
Both of these systems are currently weakening and pose no threat to any land at the moment. Celia, who was a Category 5 Hurricane late last week, is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression later today and a general low pressure system by Monday. Darby, who became the second earliest major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in the Pacific smashing the old record of Hurricane Daniel held since June 30 of 1978, is also weakening and should become a general, unnamed low pressure system by midweek, but during this time will also take a turn back towards Mexico and possibly reach the coast by the weekend.
Some more tropical history
As long as we are talking possible hurricanes and we mentioned the history Darby made this weekend, I found this factoid from back in 1957.
1957 – Hurricane Audrey smashed ashore at Cameron, LA, drowning 390 persons in the storm tide, and causing 150 million dollars damage in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Audrey left only a brick courthouse and a cement-block icehouse standing at Cameron, and when the waters settled in the town of Crede, only four buildings remained. The powerful winds of Audrey tossed a fishing boat weighing 78 tons onto an off-shore drilling platform. Winds along the coast gusted to 105 mph, and oil rigs off the Louisiana coast reported wind gusts to 180 mph. A storm surge greater than twelve feet inundated the Louisiana coast as much as 25 miles inland. It was the deadliest June hurricane of record for the U.S.
World Cup Weather
The World Cup continues on through July 11 even though the U.S. hopes of winning have disappeared. Of course, that means this is the time where you pick another team to root for! The weather for the late game later today in Johannesburg, South Africa between Argentina and Mexico looks mainly clear. Weather for the two games on Monday, one in Durban between the Netherlands and Slovakia and the other in Johannesburg between Brazil and Chile, also look fairly clear and nice! A system might move in towards the middle of the week, bring the chance of some rain by Wednesday, but should clear out in time for the Quarterfinal matches next Friday and Saturday.
And to end off the blog, we’ll take a quick look at the severe threat. Today there is a threat over the upper Ohio River Valley stretching in to lower New England. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, though large hail and an isolated tornado will not be ruled out through the day. On Monday the threat moves into the New England and New York area. After that, we could actually see a break from big severe weather threats through the middle of the week across most of the country, giving areas in the upper Midwest some time to dry out from storms over the weekend that dumped almost a half a foot of rain in some cities.
That’s it for today. Have a great day!
D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation
The National Hurricane Center has now officially categorized the storm in the Caribbean as a tropical storm as of this morning. This is the first named storm of the the 2010 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. This storm is currently located off the coast of Honduras. It is expected to continue to move towards the northwest and make landfall near the border of Mexico and Belize on Sunday morning. As it passes over land, it will likely lose strength. One of the main concerns for these areas will be heavy rain. The storm may regain it strength after it passes over the Yucatan and moves back in to the Gulf of Mexico as it once again moves over warmer waters. Here are the some of the latest track forecasts and landfall forecasts: