WeatherNation Blog

Tropics, and Flooding, and Severe… Oh My!

TROPICS

We’re not done with hurricane season yet… not by a long shot. August through October is considered the peak of hurricane season. Globally speaking,  78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor hurricane (Cat 1 – Cat 2) days, and 96% of the major (Cat 3, Cat 4 and Cat 5) hurricane days occur in this time period. By the beginning of September, we would expect to have had four named systems, two of which would strengthen into hurricanes and one of which would be a Cat 3 or greater.

Here’s the rundown of the 2010 Hurricane Season:

Tropical Storm Lisa (Active)
Hurricane Karl (September 14th – September 18th)
Hurricane Igor (Active)
Tropical Storm Hermine (September 6th – September 8th)
Tropical Storm Gaston (September 1st – September 2nd)
Tropical Storm Fiona (August 30th – September 4th)
Hurricane Earl (August 25th – September 5th)
Hurricane Danielle (August 21st – August 31st)
Tropical Depression 5 (August 10th – August 11th)
Tropical Storm Colin (August 2nd – August 8th)
Tropical Storm Bonnie (July 22nd – July 24th)
Tropical Depression 2 (July 8th)
Hurricane Alex (Jun 25th – July 2nd)

Lisa is the latest development. She looks to remain a tropical storm through Friday moving ever so slowly. She doesn’t look very impressive right now and is probably one of the last Cape Verde storms. It’s during this time of the year that storms have a tough time moving across the Atlantic from Africa. In October, the bulk of the activity starts up in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic:

The models are looking interesting and are showing multiple tropical cyclones firing up in the Southwestern Atlantic & Caribbean. Florida, the southern Atlantic coast, the Gulf Coast, the Caribbean islands and Mexico are looking to be “hot spots” for these upcoming storms. With La Nina in full force, that doesn’t help the situation much with warm waters allowing that heat to build up in the western Atlantic and Gulf.

The GFS model is looking more active closer to home in the upcoming weeks.

TEXAS DOWNPOURS

Another day of Gulf moisture will unleash more heavy rain in Texas today. The threat of flooding continues and many areas are reporting flooding. Check out this flooded golf course from Mansfield Texas:

It looks more like a river than a golf course! Another 2 inches of rain will be possible in southern Texas. Rivers and streams are high and exisiting flooding will be aggravated while new flooding events will occur.  A driver was swept into Oso Creek Monday morning as it rose to 8 feet. The body and the man’s vehicle was found today. 100,000 gallons of raw sewage overwhelmed the sewer system in Corpus Christi yesterday, but seems to be under control today. Let’s hope it stays that way!

OTHER TROUBLE SPOTS…

More severe weather is expected in the Midwest. A cold front is sweeping across the area and a line of strong storms will accompany it. The overall risk of tornadoes is minimal, but hail and damaging winds will be the main concern today.

Susie Martin
WeatherNation Meteorologist

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