Residents in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin are continuing to monitor area river levels, after a swath of 5 to 11-inches of rain drifted over the area Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. Numerous roads remain closed, including Interstate 35 near Owatonna, Minnesota this morning. Although small creeks and streams are slowly receding, they are pouring into larger rivers like the Minnesota and Mississippi. As the deep area of low pressure responsible for the flooding rainfall continues to push east across the Great Lakes today, wrap-around showers will kick back into northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the U.P. of Michigan. Temperatures ahead of the front may top record levels across the Ohio & Tennessee Valley today, with 50s and 60s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to fire along the front, but we are not expecting widespread severe weather.
Tropical storm Mike will be shy of hurricane strength today as he plows into the central American coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. This system may stall out over northern Honduras this weekend, producing torrential rainfall and mudslides. Eventually, the area of low pressure is forecast to slide up the central part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and out into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. If this indeed happens, we could be looking at a regeneration of this storm next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lisa seems to be fading away into the Atlantic just to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. She is forecast to lose tropical storm status over the weekend, becoming a tropical depression Saturday night or early Sunday, and a remnant low early next week. The rest of the tropics remain relatively quiet at this time. Over in the Pacific, an area of disturbed weather located a couple hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce squally weather. Unfavorable conditions will make it hard for a tropical cyclone to form from this cluster of storms.
It just keeps on coming down in the Midwest. Training storms and rain showers will move through the region all day. the tropical moisture is coming all the way from Mexico and was the remnants of Hurricane Karl that were pulled northward. Astronomical reports of rainfall totals are rolling in. One report out of southern Minnesota said the person could not get an accurate measurement because the rain gauge overflowed.
Watonwan County, Minnesota spotters reported 9.82 inches of rain by mid-morning September 23rd, 2010. Reports out of Blue Earth County near the town of Amboy exceeded 10 inches! Flood reports are increasing. Roads in parts of southern Minnesota are closed due to the rising waters.
The core of the jet stream, the main superhighway for storms, is a few hundred miles farther south than usual for late September, howling directly overhead. That means more rapid weather changes than usual, frequent frontal passages and storms whipping from west to east. The greater the “baroclinicity” (the stronger the north-south temperature contrasts) the more potential energy available to fuel a storm. Considering we’re seeing 40s and 50s just north, and 80s and 90s a few hundred miles to our south, there’s plenty of energy available to the storm sloshing overhead today, and that should result in some ridiculous amounts of rain. Some towns will easily set a 24-hour rainfall record. Because the ground is already saturated and waterlogged, the local NWS has issued a “Flash Flood Watch” for most of central and east central Minnesota and the northern half of Wisconsin – meaning conditions are ripe for flooding problems: wet basements, swollen streams, inundated intersections capable of making the daily commute an exercise in futility.
Find your Happy Place. You’re going to need to psyche yourself out a little today (and hold your breath as you make a mad dash to and from your vehicle). A character-building fall day – the first full day of autumn, by the way. The sun is as high in the sky as it was on March 22 – making it even more remarkable that highs may surge into the low 70s south of the Minnesota River, holding in the 60s elsewhere.
A Month’s Worth Of Rain In 36 Hours? The latest NAM/WRF model prints out the heaviest rain bands from the Minnesota Arrowhead into northern Wisconsin, where some 4″+ amounts are possible. Anywhere from 2-3″ is predicted from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities, significantly lesser amounts over far southeastern Minnesota.
This is an IMPRESSIVE storm – it’s slow movement prolonging the rain, chalking up outrageous rainfall amounts for September. A plume of tropical moisture is surging northward across the Plains states, fueling this deepening area of low pressure, some of this may be the tropical remains of Hurricane Georgette, which formed over the Pacific, coming ashore near Baja Mexico, sending a swirl of moisture into the Desert Southwest, flooding out parts of Texas, making our day a little bit more unpleasant and soggy around the edges.
The storm finally pushes east on Friday, winds switch around to the northwest (10-20 mph with higher gusts) allowing drier, Canadian air to percolate southward, pushing the heaviest rains into Wisconsin. Clouds may linger much of the day (showers lingering near Duluth) but odds favor a dry afternoon and evening – no major weather complications for Friday evening football games – but take a sweatshirt of blanket – it will definitely feel like Autumn out there as temperatures fall through the 50s with a distinct whiff of wind chill.
Saturday should start out partly sunny and promising, but a lingering puddle of cold air swirling several miles over Minnesota may spark a few PM instability showers. It won’t be like today, but an hour or two of rain can’t be ruled out Saturday, best chance coming between lunch and the dinner hour. Highs may hold in the 50s, nicking 60 over southern counties. Sunday still looks better as this (ill-timed) “upper air disturbance” pinwheels east and the atmosphere becomes more stable. That should translate into more sun, highs well up into the 60s to near 70 south and west of the Minnesota River. Models are hinting at a string of low 70s the first few days of next week.
Yes, now that September is winding down – now it appears that we’ll finally sample some authentic September weather between September 26-30. Better late than never, I guess.
Fall Colors. This is one of the best explanations I’ve read about how and why leaves turn vivid colors during the autumn months. If you’re curious (or have a couple more minutes to kill) click here – graphics and information courtesy of USA Today.
Hurricane Season Keeps Going…
Tropical Depression Lisa is still way out in the Atlantic. She is expected to return to status of tropical storm. Her track isn’t so alarming.
Matthew could form in the South Central Caribbean.
Today at 11:09 PM EDT, the sun’s most direct rays will pass over the Equator, signifying the beginning of Fall for the northern hemisphere. If you were at the Equator today and looked straight up at noon, the sun would be directly overhead! The Equinox is also an interesting time of the year because, globally, days and nights are nearly the same, around 12 hours! From here until the Vernal Equinox, the northern hemisphere will have shorter days than the southern hemisphere.
Tropical Update
Take a look at the picture from Newfoundland [Newfin-LAND] that was taken yesterday as hurricane IGOR slammed through. Strong winds and heavy rain blasted the area, causing some major damage in areas along with impressive flooding, washing out local roads.
(Photos Courtesy: Twitpic)
IGOR is long gone now, but more storms are brewing in the Atlantic and one in particular could pose a threat to the United States by the beginning of October. Invest 95L is currently a high chance of tropical cyclone development. This is the low that may draw near Florida by the beginning of October:
Take a look at the long range weather model below, note the large blob of ‘something’ near Florida by October 1st. Could this be MATTHEW? It’s definitely something to watch…
We’re not done with hurricane season yet… not by a long shot. August through October is considered the peak of hurricane season. Globally speaking, 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor hurricane (Cat 1 – Cat 2) days, and 96% of the major (Cat 3, Cat 4 and Cat 5) hurricane days occur in this time period. By the beginning of September, we would expect to have had four named systems, two of which would strengthen into hurricanes and one of which would be a Cat 3 or greater.
Here’s the rundown of the 2010 Hurricane Season:
Tropical Storm Lisa (Active)
Hurricane Karl (September 14th – September 18th)
Hurricane Igor (Active)
Tropical Storm Hermine (September 6th – September 8th)
Tropical Storm Gaston (September 1st – September 2nd)
Tropical Storm Fiona (August 30th – September 4th)
Hurricane Earl (August 25th – September 5th)
Hurricane Danielle (August 21st – August 31st)
Tropical Depression 5 (August 10th – August 11th)
Tropical Storm Colin (August 2nd – August 8th)
Tropical Storm Bonnie (July 22nd – July 24th)
Tropical Depression 2 (July 8th)
Hurricane Alex (Jun 25th – July 2nd)
Lisa is the latest development. She looks to remain a tropical storm through Friday moving ever so slowly. She doesn’t look very impressive right now and is probably one of the last Cape Verde storms. It’s during this time of the year that storms have a tough time moving across the Atlantic from Africa. In October, the bulk of the activity starts up in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic:
The models are looking interesting and are showing multiple tropical cyclones firing up in the Southwestern Atlantic & Caribbean. Florida, the southern Atlantic coast, the Gulf Coast, the Caribbean islands and Mexico are looking to be “hot spots” for these upcoming storms. With La Nina in full force, that doesn’t help the situation much with warm waters allowing that heat to build up in the western Atlantic and Gulf.
The GFS model is looking more active closer to home in the upcoming weeks.
TEXAS DOWNPOURS
Another day of Gulf moisture will unleash more heavy rain in Texas today. The threat of flooding continues and many areas are reporting flooding. Check out this flooded golf course from Mansfield Texas:
It looks more like a river than a golf course! Another 2 inches of rain will be possible in southern Texas. Rivers and streams are high and exisiting flooding will be aggravated while new flooding events will occur. A driver was swept into Oso Creek Monday morning as it rose to 8 feet. The body and the man’s vehicle was found today. 100,000 gallons of raw sewage overwhelmed the sewer system in Corpus Christi yesterday, but seems to be under control today. Let’s hope it stays that way!
OTHER TROUBLE SPOTS…
More severe weather is expected in the Midwest. A cold front is sweeping across the area and a line of strong storms will accompany it. The overall risk of tornadoes is minimal, but hail and damaging winds will be the main concern today.
Hello and happy Monday everyone. I hope you had a good weekend. Here’s a quick recap on a couple of headlines across the nation this weekend.
Kansas City, MO Severe Storms
Nasty storms developed around Kansas City, this weekend. Up to 5 1/2″ diameter hail was reported in spots along with heavy rain/flooding/damaging winds. The National Weather Service from Kansas City, MO has a good write up about it on their NWS page here:
IGOR Slams Bermuda
IGOR caused some issues this weekend in Bermuda. Reports of heavy rain/gusty winds/power outages were common through early Monday. Good news, no reports of fatalities or serious injuries.
Looking Ahead – Tropics
IGOR and JULIA are going to be goners shortly, but the National Hurricane Center is tracking a cluster of storms that could likely become LISA within the next day or two:
Heat Sticks in the South
With the Autumnal Equinox right around the corner, summer heat lingers this week through the southern two-thirds of the nation. High temperatures are likely to be 10, almost 20 degrees above average this week for some spots. Take a look at the high temperatures for this Monday:
Severe Weather Threat Today
A low pressure system scooting across the Upper Mississippi Valley today may trigger some stronger storms in NE Minnesota, N Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
Well, that’s all for now, thanks for catching up with the latest & greatest here.
Residents in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin are continuing to monitor area river levels, after a swath of 5 to 11-inches of rain drifted over the area Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. Numerous roads remain closed, including Interstate 35 near Owatonna, Minnesota this morning. Although small creeks and streams are slowly receding, they are pouring into larger rivers like the Minnesota and Mississippi. As the deep area of low pressure responsible for the flooding rainfall continues to push east across the Great Lakes today, wrap-around showers will kick back into northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the U.P. of Michigan. Temperatures ahead of the front may top record levels across the Ohio & Tennessee Valley today, with 50s and 60s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to fire along the front, but we are not expecting widespread severe weather.
