Hello and happy Monday everyone – hope all is well and I hope you’re enjoying your last day of February. Things are quite active again today as another round of severe weather is expected to continue and crop up again later this afternoon.
More Active Weather
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have been rolling over the same areas over the past several days, in fact, parts of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys have seen close to 6″ or 7″ based on radar estimates:
More showers and thunderstorms, producing heavy rainfall and severe storm reports was responsible for flooding in Ohio earlier today, see below:
Flooding in Ohio – Image courtesy JolieLuv via Twitter
Other Severe Weather Reports
Here are the latest severe weather reports from early today. See HERE:
Note the isolated red dots in the mix… those are tornado reports. One in particular moved through south central IN and northern KY (unconfirmed tornado report as of AM Monday) was responsible for several injuries and several damaged or destroyed homes.
Yes, I think we are in for a very active severe weather season. One of the main reasons why it may be so volatile this spring is because of La Nina – the cooling the Equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific. When La Ninas form, they tend to keep the jet stream or the strong upper level wind active across the United States. With an active jet stream and temperatures now starting to warm as we inch closer to Vernal Equinox, severe weather is looking more and more likely. If you don’t have one already, it may be a good time to think about investing in a NOAA Weather Radio or a Severe Weather Radio. One of these little guys can be picked up at a relatively inexpensive cost and virtually at any box store that sells electronic equipment. It honestly could be one of the cheapest forms of life insurance you could find. It’ll alert you at any time of the day, even when you’re sleeping of impending or potentially life threatening weather. It is something definitely worth looking into now that severe weather season is rolling in with gusto.
Thanks for checking in on this Monday, stop back again tomorrow won’t you?
It’s a busy Sunday here in the office as we are getting ready to watch a severe event break out tonight across the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio River Valleys right into tomorrow morning.
Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Sunday — The Risks
This is the highlighted risk areas for severe weather today. A MODERATE RISK is out for areas such as Little Rock, Memphis, and Evansville. Around our Moderate Risk is a SLIGHT RISK of severe storms, including areas such as Shreveport, Tulsa, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Nashville.
This is our tornado threat for the overnight period — there is a 15% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point within the red area. Other colors are coordinated with the numbers found in them. The 10% and 15% areas are also considered a Hatched Area, meaning there is a 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
This is the wind threat for later tonight — a big component of the line that will form will be damaging winds, indicated by the very high chances of damaging winds over 58 mph.
This is the hail threat — the 15% out towards Kansas City will be during the afternoon, but most of the rest will be overnight with the system. There will be colder air aloft then there was on Thursday, so hail will be a greater threat tonight.
Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Sunday — The Set Up
A deep low pressure center is exiting from the southwest into the Plains today — this is the same system that has brought snow to parts of California that typically don’t see snow during the year. As the system moves through, we expect storms to start popping later today in areas such has southeast KS, southwest MO and western AR mainly after sunset. We expect there to be a strong enough cap to limit most storm activity during the daytime hours, but once we start cooling down the atmosphere, things will start blowing up. We expect a line of storms to form, but out ahead of this line we do expect to see some supercell thunderstorms to form. In these supercells will be the best chance of seeing tornadoes, but like Thursday we will likely see spin ups in the line of storms. These storms will also be capable of very strong winds in excess of 58 mph, and some large hail as well. The atmosphere will be loaded, and these storms will last throughout the nighttime hours, pushing their way into KY and TS by the late night and early morning hours — still as severe as they are when they start. Bus stop weather Monday morning across the Ohio River Valley could be very dangerous as these severe storms move through. All these areas, however, could see a couple lines of storms throughout the evening and overnight — just because the main threat as you head east would be overnight does not mean we could see severe storms pop up in places like KY this evening.
This is the EHI, something we watch that shows the possibility of rotation within the air, for early Monday morning. The higher the number, the greater rotation is possible. We can see a good chance of rotation within the air, something that would produce tornadoes/quick spin ups, over western KY. This is some of the highest numbers I have seen for tonight’s event — but even with lower numbers elsewhere the right ingredients are in place for some damaging winds and tornadoes throughout the overnight.
Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Sunday — Flooding Into Monday
We expect more heavy rains across areas that received the rains on Thursday. Some areas could see over an inch from the rains.
Slight Risk of Severe Weather Monday
This will continue to push to the east on Monday, and many areas are under a Slight Risk of severe storm on Monday for the advancement of this system.
BE PREPARED FOR THESE STORMS
It is important to be ready for these storms — often times severe storms at night are more deadly than those during the day, even though people are more likely to be in a building. This is because, especially during sleeping hours, people are not aware of what is going on and a severe storm could move through without the person knowing.
Here are some safety tips:
We’ll continue to watch as severe weather breaks out later today, and the crew will bring you the latest information tomorrow. Thanks for stopping in this Sunday, and I hope you stay safe out there today!
Snow fell for the yesterday in San Francsico for the first time since 1976, making that 35 years since the last time it has snowed there.
Here are a few other interesting weather extreme stats for San Francisco area:
Most snow reported at the San Francisco Airport: 1.5″ on January 21, 1962
Most rain reported at the San Francisco Airport: 5.59″ on January 4, 1982
Coldest Temperatures recorded at the San Francisco Airport: 24° December 9, 1972
Warmest Temperatures recorded at the San Francisco Airport: 106° June 14, 1961
While this event was no where near the record for snowfall, it is still quite rare for this area.
This storm system is just getting started and it will continue to track through the country. Next stop is Southern California and Arizona, then it moves into the southern plains where the conditions are ripe for another outbreak of severe weather. Severe weather outlook for tomorrow showing the potential for another outbreak in the same areas that just had severe storms on Thursday:
As expected, severe storms developed yesterday in the lower Mississippi River Valley and moved into the Ohio valley into the overnight hours. The main threats were tornadoes, strong winds, and flash flooding. These are the storm reports from this system.
Notice 10 preliminary reports of tornadoes and over 200 reports of wind damage. Large amounts of rain fell across portions Western Kentucky resulting in flash flooding and even causing 4 deaths in that area. Some areas picked up over 3 inches of rain:
Even with all of this additional rain, we still aren’t that far off from our Normal Rainfall year to date, in fact even below normal in the southern part of Kentucky:
Today the storm is moving into the northeast. The threat for severe weather isn’t quite as high as it was yesterday.
The main concerns for the rest of the day today will be areas of heavy snow, with up to a foot expected in Central New York through Maine.
Hello and happy Thursday everyone – I hope all is well. Today could be a very active day for folks in the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee and southern Ohio River Valleys as a vigorous low pressure system quickly develops and spreads showers and thunderstorms eastward across these areas, some of which could be severe including tornadoes.
Moderate Severe Storm Risk
The storm prediction center has issued a MODERATE risk of severe weather today for locations shaded in red. These locations stand a very good chance at seeing strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening. The potential exists for storms producing hail 1″ in diameter or more, damaging wind gusts of 58mph or more and the tornadoes
MODERATE TORNADO PROBABILITIES
The tornado threat today is fairly significant… it is important to stay tuned to local forecasts during the day and have those severe weather radios handy.
Damaging Wind Event
The biggest threat with the storms developing later today appears to be the damaging wind potential. There is a high likelihood that these storms will produce very strong winds that could cause damage into the overnight hours.
High Resolution Radar Reflectivity
The image below shows the strong thunderstorm potential through the evening hours in the MODERATE risk area noted above.
Heavy Rain/Flash Flood Potential
If severe weather isn’t enough, the continuous heavy rain potential through the evening across the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys could produce flooding. The latest forecast calls for 3″ to 5″ of rain in spots.