If you have been watching the forecast the past couple of days, you’ve noticed a huge temperature difference across the central U.S. From highs in the teens this afternoon in North Dakota, to the mid and upper 80s in south Texas, a clash is brewing that could stir up some storms with an attitude. As I’m typing up our bog, the temperature in Wichita Falls, Texas is 43. A mere 180 miles southeast, Waco is at a balmy 80! This leaves Dallas-Ft. Worth in between, with a nice temperature spread from one end of the metroplex to the other. Along our temperature gradient, a stalled out boundary will be the focus for several rounds of thunderstorms over the next few days. As upper level lows ride along the boundary, some of our thunderstorms could become severe, with large hail and damaging wind. Parts of Texas and Arkansas may also be in line for a few isolated tornadoes. This map shows an area outlined by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, as a zone of possible severe development and a watch box.
The severe weather threat will basically stay within the same area tomorrow, although may expand north into Oklahoma, and back to the southwest to include more of central Texas. By Tuesday, our severe weather concern will stretch from east Texas and Louisiana, up to southern Ohio. Another concern is the forecast for continuous waves of moderate to heavy precipitation over saturated areas. Eastern Oklahoma, most of Arkansas, and western Tennessee are currently in a FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Tuesday, as rain gauges working overtime could easily tip at 2 to 6-inches locally.
On the north side of this front, COLD air has enveloped much of the Central and Northern Plains. As I mentioned earlier, highs today in northern North Dakota may stay in the teens. After a round of 2 to 11-inches of snow in central Minnesota yesterday, highs will stay 10 degrees below the typical afternoon reading for November 20. By Thanksgiving, highs are forecast to jump 10 to 15-degrees above normal across the northern tier of states. The snow covered car pic is courtesy of WeatherNation’s own Walt Kruhoeffer, shot in Minneapolis.
Now back to the tropical side of our forecast! Late season systems have the tropics heating up again. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 13-E will more than likely become Tropical Storm Kenneth before the day is out. If the forecast pans out, Jova could briefly attain hurricane status by Wednesday. Although the hurricane season is quickly winding down on the calendar, a disturbed area of weather in the central Atlantic is now running a 50% chance of gaining tropical cyclone status in the next couple of days. Could we have a storm named Tammy in our future??
Check back with us throughout the week, as we track the forecast for Thanksgiving travelers!
Meteorologist Bryan Karrick, WeatherNation