Day 20 of Nadine
Nadine just won’t go away. She is on track to hit the record books as one of the longest lasting storms. If she survives until Friday, then she could even be in the top 5. The Azores could once again be affected by her obscure path.
Current list of the Longest Lasting Hurricanes (via Wikipedia)
|28||Hurricane San Ciriaco||August 1899|
|27.25||Hurricane Ginger||September 1971|
|24.75||Hurricane Inga||September 1969|
|23||Hurricane Joan-Miriam||October 1988|
|22||Hurricane Kyle||September 2002|
|21||Storm 4||September 1926|
|20.75||Hurricane Carrie||September 1957|
|Hurricane Inez||September 1966|
|19.75||Hurricane Alberto||August 2000|
|19.25||Storm 9||September 1893|
|19||Hurricane Irene-Olivia||September 1971|
From CNN: “At least 50 people were injured and 271,400 households rendered without power after Typhoon Jelawat struck Okinawa island of Japan, disaster officials there said Saturday. As the storm roared toward other Japanese islands, three people were injured in the southernmost part of Kyushu, the Disaster Management Office of the Kagoshima prefectural government said.”
From Fox News: Dozens of trains were halted in coastal areas around Tokyo and many stores inside the capital closed early Sunday as the storm approached. It was expected to hit northern Japan and move off into the Pacific Ocean early Monday.
Rain Moves into the Southeast
After torrential downpours impact Texas yesterday, skies are finally clearing out but this storm isn’t over yet.
It is now moving into Louisiana and Mississippi. Persistent areas of very heavy rain could lead to more Flash Flooding. Radar showing wide spread areas of heavy rain.
Other scattered thunderstorms, which are not quite as likely to be severe, could extend north from Texas all the way into Northern Minnesota.
From Summer to Winter…. in one week!
Look for huge temperatures in several cities across the central US for the week ahead. Here are a few:
International Falls, MN
Have a great week!
“A Dry Heat”. My friends in Scottsdale, Arizona love to remind me that “Paul, it’s a dry heat!” So is my oven, but I still wouldn’t stick my head inside. Walt Kruhoeffer snapped this pic of Lake Calhoun Saturday as the mercury was topping 80. Is it me or does everything look extra-dry out there?
Drought – And Peak Color From Space. NASA’s high-resolution MODIS satellite image from Saturday shows tinges of orange and red from low orbit. From 200 miles up you can see how dry much of Minnesota is right now.
Unseasonable Warmth Sweeps Across Canada. From Calgary to Winnipeg, Canadians are rubbing their eyes, wondering what month it is. The map above shows temperatures as of 9 pm Saturday evening. Colder air will push southward by midweek, setting the stage for a little wind chill, even flurries up north within a week. Yep…flurries. Map above: Ham Weather.
Flurry Potential By Next Sunday?. With 850 mb temperatures (about 4,000 feet above the ground) forecast to be in the 23-28 F range a week from today I wouldn’t be surprised to see flurries, even a few heavier snow showers over central and northern Minnesota. With surface temperatures falling thru the 30s up north I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a little slush north of Brainerd Sunday night. Lovely. Map above: WSI Corporation.
Looks Like October. The GFS 500 mb (18,000 foot) forecast valid next Sunday at 1 pm shows a cold, deep trough of low pressure centered over Hudson Bay, reinforcing “spokes” of energy rotating around this cold whirlpool of Canadian air. By next Sunday temperatures aloft may be marginally cold enough for a few wet flakes to reach the ground up north. Map above courtesy of Larry Cosgrove’s WeatherAmerica Newsletter.
Role Reversal. Last summer much of Texas was enduring an historic drought – the worst on record. It’s still dry over much of Texas, but yesterday Abilene experienced torrential rain and flash flooding. This photo courtesy of @emiliacakes.
Typhoon Jelawat Soaks Japan. Typhoon (same thing as a hurricane) Jelawat is forecast to weaken to tropical storm status today, but winds near Tokyo may still gust as high as 50-70 mph with torrential rains capable of significant flooding. Forecast map courtesy of the U.S. Navy.
Soaking Rains For Tokyo. Last night’s radar image from JMA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, showed heavy rains from a rapidly weakening Typhoon Jelawat approaching Tokyo, where winds may top 50-60 mph today. Expect flight delays and cancellations with severe flooding across much of Japan.
Ring Around The Doppler. What could produce such an artifact? If you guessed “melting snow” you would be correct. You win nothing, except the satisfaction of realizing that you’re an above-average weather geek (um…enthusiast). Details from the Lubbock, Texas National Weather Service: ”A curious RADAR display this morning – perhaps you can guess what caused it. We call it a “bright band” and it typically shows up during cool season stratiform rain. A hint: the altitude of the band varies depending on how warm or cool the airmass is that the rain falls through. This mornings bright band is around 8500 to 9000 feet above the ground over the Texas South Plains – typical of an early fall tropical airmass. We are looking at an approximate 9.9 degree elevation cut, as opposed to the familiar 0.5 degree slice we normally look at. Could it be either birds/insects flying off? How about an earthquake? Well, if you guessed instead melting snow – then you are correct. As snowflakes melt they add a layer of water onto the snow flakes and become highly reflective within the melting layer (also very close to the freezing level), thus causing a concentric ring around the RADAR dome location.”
Texas Flooding Rain
Rainfall totals have shattered old records all across Texas over the past 48 hours. As of this morning, Big Spring had officially received over 8 inches from this system.
Flash Flood Warnings effect for the Big Spring area and now Flash Flood Watches have been extended eastward to include Louisiana and Mississippi. Most of the moisture will be exiting West Texas today and moving into the East Texas and into the Southeast for the weekend and early next week.
Over the next three days, the highest totals are projected to be over Northern Louisiana and along the Gulf Coast of Mississipp and Alabama.
Numerous record have already been broken and it is still raining in many of these cities.
From the National Weather Service:
SO FAR TODAY 1.29 INCHES OR RAIN HAS FALLEN AT AUSTIN CAMP MABRY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.20 SET IN 1985.
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.44 INCHES WAS SET AT DEL RIO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.57 INCHES SET IN 1984.
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.19 INCHES WAS SET AT SAN ANTONIO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.12 INCHES SET IN 1976.
Although the storms moving into the Southeast are not expected to be severe, there could be some gusty winds, especially in the Houston and Galveston area. Threat for thunderstorms extends up into the Carolinas and back toward the Inter Mountain West but the North continues to remain dry and sunny.
Intense Southwest Heat
Near record highs expected Sunday and early next week as high pressure takes hold over West Central California. An Excessive Heat Watch has already been issued for the dark red shaded areas.
From the National Weather Service:
.A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO SOME OF THE WARMEST LEVELS RECORDED SO FAR IN 2012. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.
Picture from: http://www.moontimerising.com/2011/09/the-harvest-moon/
Most of the northern and western US will be able to enjoy a cloud free evening to catch a glimpse of the Harvest Moon just after the sun has set. The Harvest Moon is the full moon closest to the autumnal equinox. Due to its low angle in the sky this time of the year, the moon appears large and has an orange glow. This cycle of the moon got its name from Farmer’s who used the light from the moon to do their harvesting.
Enjoy the view!
The Amazing, Shrinking White Bear Lake. What happened to White Bear Lake in Minnesota? The photos are a stark reminder of what’s happening statewide: lake water levels are down 2-5 feet, but the problem is much worse on White Bear: “White Bear Lake is plummeting to a record low water level due to the current drought and large amount of groundwater pumping. Some lakeshore property owners have had to constantly expand their docks to reach water’s edge.” (MARLIN LEVISON/STARTRIBUNE
Rainfall Necessary To End The Drought. Based on NOAA’s Palmer Index, the values above are the rainfall amounts necessary to end the drought. Those amounts range from 5-6″ in the Twin Cities metro to 8-11″ over southern counties, to as much as 11-13″ over the Red River Valley. A couple of storms won’t do the trick – it may take many months to dig ourselves out of this dry, dusty hole. Map: NOAA, USDA and Ham Weather.
Good News For Dock Companies. Good grief – look at the collection of extendable docks on White Bear Lake. Details: ”White Bear Lake is plummeting to a record low water level due to the current drought and large amount of groundwater pumping. Docks along the shoreline need to be constantly extended.” (MARLIN LEVISON/STARTRIBUNE
.30″ rain so far this month; driest September since 1882. Photo credit: Paul Sundberg Photography.
2.80″ normal rain as of September 27.
77.45% of Minnesota in moderate drought – up from 13.67% just 3 months ago. Details below.
45 Minnesota counties in severe or extreme drought as of September 25. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor.
331 months/row where the global temperature exceeded the 20th century average. Source: NASA GISS.
One Of The Driest Septembers On Record. Actually, it’s the second driest September in modern-day records dating back to 1891, the driest since 1882 for MSP. Here’s an excerpt of this week’s WeatherTalk blog post from Dr. Mark Seeley: “…The real story for September was the dryness due to absence of rainfall. Many observers reported measurable rainfall amounts on only 2-3 days, resulting in one of the driest Septembers in history on a statewide basis. The driest September was 1952 when the statewide average rainfall was just 0.57 inches. This year’s statewide value will be close to that one. Many observers clearly reported their driest September in history, including Windom (0.30″), Moorhead (0.19″), Willmar (0.14″), Collegeville (0.08″), and Morris (0.03″). For Morris and Collegeville it was one of their driest months in history as well.….As of the end of September the U.S. Drought Monitor placed all or parts of 45 Minnesota counties in severe to extreme drought, most notably in southwestern, south-central and northwestern Minnesota.”
Photo credit above: “White Bear Lake is plummeting to a record low water level due to the current drought and large amount of groundwater pumping. Some lakeshore property owners have had to constantly expand their docks to reach water’s edge.” (MARLIN LEVISON/STARTRIBUNE).
More Sinkhole Than Waterfall. That’s a photo of Minnehaha “Falls” taken by WeatherNation TV meteorologist Addison Green on Thursday. Not even a trickle of water. Not good.
Minnesota’s Drought Deepens. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows 98.08% of the Gopher State is now “abnormally dry”, 77.45% of Minnesota in moderate drought – severe drought now pushing across central Minnesota into the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Extreme drought is expanding across far southern Minnesota and much of the Red River Valley. We started the year in serious drought – we will end 2012 in serious drought.
A Slow Motion Weather Disaster. No such thing as a Drought Warning – local meteorologists aren’t interrupting Dancing With The Stars for drought updates, but what’s happening over the central USA is nothing short of a disaster for many farmers. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor nearly 69% of the USA is “abnormally dry”. The area covered by moderate drought has increased from 42% in late June to 54%; extreme drought has expanded from 7% of the USA to nearly 18% of America as of September 25. Some relief is expected over the Southern Plains and Lower Misssissippi River Valley, but little sustained relief is anticipated from the Upper Midwest westward to the Rockies.
Evolution Of An Historic Drought. The time-lapse above shows 12 weeks worth of evolving drought conditions. The soggy remains of Hurricane Isaac provided some partial relief for the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys in late August and early September. The driest conditions have been shifting westward in recent weeks; right now the worst conditions (extreme to exceptional drought) found over the Plains states. Map: NOAA and USDA.
Expanding Drought – Exhibit A. There was a lake here the last time I checked. This photo sums up the problem, which has reached alarming levels at White Bear Lake: “White Bear Lake is plummeting to a record low water level due to the current drought and large amount of groundwater pumping. Stairways that formerly led to water’s edge now end at a grassy beach.” (MARLIN LEVISON/STARTRIBUNE).
Status Quo. The 84-hour NAM model shows more heavy rain for the Gulf coast, spreading into the east coast by Monday and Tuesday. Dry weather prevails from the Pacific coastline across the Central Rockies and Great Plains, unseasonable warmth being swept across western Canada into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. No tropical systems in sight – the Atlantic unusually quiet.
Typhoon Jelawat Closing In On Okinawa, Japan. The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang has an update; here’s an excerpt: “Typhoon Jelawat remains a formidable storm as it passes dangerously close to Taiwan on path towards Okinawa and then mainland Japan. On Sunday, Jelawat became the second super typhoon to pass over the region in two weeks: Sanba was just there on September 13-14. While the western Pacific is no stranger to frequent typhoons, it is quite rare to have two consecutive super typhoons (a “super typhoon” is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater).”
* the latest radar image of Jelawat is here, courtesy of the JMA, the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Hurricane Force. A typhoon is the same thing as a hurricane, although Pacific hurricanes are, on average, 30-40% bigger than Atlantic hurricanes (more ocean = a longer “fetch” of warm water, more runway for these storms to grow). Here’s some terrific YouTube footage that captures the ferocity of Jelawat: “Check out the powerful wind gusts generated by Typhoon Jelawat. Footage taken at 9:45 AM Tokyo time, Sep. 29, 2012. The winds are literally pushing back the surf.”
Putting The Eyes Of The Crowd Into The Eye Of Hurricanes. Crowd-sourcing hurricane wind information? Why not. Here’s an excerpt of another fascinating article from Climate Central: “Ordinarily, it takes an advanced degree and years of training to become a bona fide hurricane expert. But thanks to an innovative new project, ordinary citizens can make a real contribution to hurricane science armed with little more than an internet connection, a sharp eye and a bit of enthusiasm. The project is known as Cyclone Center, and it’s designed to crowdsource one of the most important questions facing scientists: how strong are the winds in the average hurricane or typhoon?”
Storm Reports. September and October can bring a secondary spike of severe weather, as chilly Canadian air advances south. A persistent frontal boundary produced hail, straight-line winds, even a few tornadoes from Colorado and Texas into the Ohio Valley. The map above shows a week’s worth of severe storm reports; hail in blue, flash flooding in green, tornado reports show up as red dots. That’s one small consolation of a drought: no Gulf moisture capable of sustaining severe T-storms. Map: NOAA SPC and Ham Weather.
Waterspout! The National Weather Service in Key West has details, via Facebook: “Waterspout report just in. Waterspout located at 120 yards South of Smathers Beach.”
Great Smoky Mountain Sunrise. I’m impressed with the quality of photography we’re receiving on a consistent basis. This pic is courtesy of Chris Higgins Photography and WeatherNation TV: “Sunrise from Cades Cove in The Great Smoky Mountain National Park this morning, before the rain moved in.”
“Sunflower Shelf Cloud”. This (stunning) photo of an advancing severe thunderstorm, lit up from below by cloud to ground lightning, was taken by Scott Ackerman Photography, courtesy of WeatherNation TV. The smooth, laminar cloud formation was triggered by a temperature inversion, temperatures warming with altitude. Amazing.
A Sunrise To Remember. Here’s a panorama of The Apostle Islands and Lake Superior, taken by Migizi Gichigumi on Friday.
Technicolor Sunset. Michael Trofimov snapped this photo of the setting sun near Battle Ground, Washington.
Texas Rain with Flooding Potential
Heavy rain has been impacting Texas already this morning. One of the hardest hit areas has been around Midland and Odessa. Map below shows the rainfall totals for just today. Big Spring has seen close to 5 inches in a matter of just a few hours.
It’s definitely not over yet. With a frontal boundary moving through the Southeast and into the Southern Plains. This will prevent the moisture from tracking northward and keep it down in Texas and into the southeast. Does not bode well for college football games tomorrow!
All of this rain in such a short time span is leading to some flooding concerns.
Flash Flood Warnings in Effect for the red shaded counties and watches in effect for the green counties.
From the National Weather Service:
.A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM HAS SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA COURTESY A SUSTAINED EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND. THIS WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN A MOST FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RAIN... SOME HEAVY...TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA WILL GENERATE RAPID RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND IN THE MORE ROCKY TERRAIN OF THE TRANS PECOS. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
Predicted rainfall totals over the next 3 days:
Over the next 3 days, some spots could see over 6 inches of rain, especially in southern Louisiana.
And the soggy pattern continues! Over the next three months, the bright green areas have a 40% chance of above average rainfall.
Although its feeling cool today around the Great Lakes, the overall trend is pushing towards a warmer weather pattern for the 3 months as a result if a weak El Nino trend.
Chilly Ryder Cup
Lots of sweaters and warm clothes at the Ryder Cup this morning. Temperatures early this morning were in the mid 40s but will be warming up to the mid 60s with plenty of sunshine this afternoon. Much warmer weather is expected tomorrow as highs climb into the 70s.
“On a cold but beautiful morning in Medinah, Illinois, spectators streamed out of the commuter rail line and parking lots at Medinah Country Club in the western suburbs of Chicago. Many wore sweatshirts as the first group teed off. U.S. golfer Jim Furyk, who was in the first group, started the match with a homely knit hat on.”
Check back here for more updates!