Monday, September 10th, 2012
Thanks to my good friend, Rich Koivisto, for this beautiful rainbow picture out of Arizona. Monsoon season continues (On average through the end of September). A slow moving low pressure system over Baja California is churning up Pacific moisture and dumping it in the Southwest.
The water vapor image below shows a few interesting features. The low over Baja California; The dry air in the wake of the cold front that brought severe weather to the eastern third of the country late last week and this weekend; and the new cold front approaching from the Northwest.
The National Weather Service out of San Diego, CA shared this picture on their Facebook page. Heavy rain led to flash flooding near Lake Elsinore, CA.
Flash Flood Potential
The National Weather Service continues Flash Flood Watches through AM Tuesday for all the areas shaded in green.
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TODAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT.
Heavy Southwest Rainfall
NOAA’s HPC 2 day rainfall forecast suggests the potential of 1″ to 2″ of rain in spots.
Quieter Weather Nationally
A huge bubble of high pressure has taken over across the eastern half of the nation in the wake of the cold front that brought severe weather to the Northeast on Saturday. This big bubble of high pressure will keep weather conditions quiet for the next several days!
Look at the high temperatures across the nation yesterday. Temperatures around the Great Lakes Region were nearly 5° to 15° cooler than average!
As the bubble of high pressure rolls east, a stiff southerly wind will develop on it’s backside. This will allow very warm conditions to settle into the central part of the country for the next few days. The image below shows the high temperature forecast for today. Pierre, SD could get up to 100°, which is almost 70° warmer than it was Sunday morning (36°).
The bubble of warmth will get kicked out in the central part of the country on Tuesday as a cool front slides out of Canada. Temperatures will be nearly 15° to 20° warmer than average in spots as temperatures soar into the 90s as far north as Minnesota.
Tuesday’s Approaching Cool Front
By Tuesday, the cool front from Canada will be across the High Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. This front will also be responsible for a few showers and storms with locally heavy rain potential.
HPC 5 Day Rainfall
NOAA’s HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests the potential of 1″ to 2″ across parts of the central part of the country as the front shifts east through the end of the week.
Behind this cool front, temps will fall once again to near and below average readings by the end of the week/weekend.
Thanks for checking in on this Monday, have a great rest of your week
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV
“Studies in Europe and Japan have found that leaves are changing color later that usual, and new research by U.S. scientists is coming up with similar results…” – from a story at northjersey.com below.
Today’s Weather Map. The WRF model (valid 4 pm today) shows dry weather over the eastern 2/3rds of America, showers and T-storms confined to south Florida. Monsoon thunderstorms are likely over the southwestern U.S., more flash flooding possible from near San Diego to Phoenix, showery rains pushing into Seattle and Tacoma.
Twin Cities Winter Snowfalls. The Winter of 1933-34 brought only 25.6″ of snow, while the winter following the blazing summer of 1988 saw 70.1″. I suspect this upcoming winter will fall somewhere in-between. How’s that for going out on a limb. 120 years of snowfall records for KMSP from the National Weather Service.
Tracking Leslie. Doppler radar out of Bermuda showed Tropical Storm Leslie’s ragged eye passing 100-200 miles east of the island; some of the spiral bands lashing Bermuda with torrential rains and wind gusting close to 60 mph.
Leslie’s Track. Tropical Storm Leslie is still…a tropical storm. The predicted strengthening hasn’t taken place, and at this point, with increasing wind shear, Leslie may not re-strengthen to hurricane status. The storm is forecast to reach Prince Edward Island, Canada by late Tuesday as a tropical storm. Map: Ham Weather.
Hurricane Isaac Was The “Perfect” Storm. Coastal residents need to focus more on the forward speed of a storm, vs. the category (wind speed). A stalled Category 1 can be far more damaging, a much more prodigous rain-maker, than a fast-moving Category 3. Details from the shreveporttimes.com: “Exhausted and overwhelmed, Plaquemines Parish residents on both sides of the Mississippi River were struggling last week to come to grips with Isaac’s aftermath — and the lengthy recovery ahead. Hundreds can’t live in their homes. Of those that can, most don’t have electricity. Communities are littered with carrion, including the carcasses of as many as 1,000 cattle.The parish, split into east and west banks by the Mississippi, bore the brunt of the hurricane’s fury. The storm surge overwhelmed “back” levees, rushed into communities and quickly filled homes with as much as 17 feet of water.”
Photo credit above: “A car and lawn are covered in marsh grass after floodwaters from Hurricane Isaac receded in Braithwaite, La., Thursday, Sept. 6, 2012. Isaac hit southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi last week, causing severe flooding and seven deaths.” (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Was No Katrina, But The Stubborn Storm Is This Generation’s “Betsy”. As I’ve been saying for weeks now, the Saffir Simpson Scale (1-5 rating for hurricanes) can be very misleading. Some of the worst flooding and loss of life has come from Category 1′s and tropical storms. An interesting story from NOLA.com; here’s an excerpt: “It has taken a while to sink in, but Hurricane Isaac, which New Orleans sized up as a minimal hurricane not worth running from, has turned out to be the region’s new Hurricane Betsy, the storm that two generations before Hurricane Katrina was regarded as the local gold standard for punishing storms. Katrina, of course, is in a class by itself. But before Katrina. it was Betsy that dominated memories as a storm of life-changing power. Betsy struck 47 years ago on Monday, killing 81 people and flooding parts of Gentilly, eastern New Orleans, Arabi and Plaquemines Parish.”
Photo credit above: “This aerial photo shows flooded homes and citrus orchards in the aftermath of Hurricane Isaac in Plaquemines Parish, La., Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2012.” (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
NASA Flies Global Hawk Over Hurricane Leslie. This is new – using drones to prove hurricanes and tropical storms, military technology trickling down into the private sector to get information that would be difficult or impossible with conventional Hurricane Hunter aircraft and “dropsondes”, tiny, parachute-like instruments dropped into hurricanes. More details from redorbit.com: “NASA has launched the part of its Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission designed to study hurricanes in the field this week with the program’s first flight of an unmanned Global Hawk aircraft over Hurricane Leslie in the Atlantic Ocean. The research drone took off from NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base in California Thursday and landed at the federal agency’s Wallops Flight Facility on Wallops Island, Va., on Friday after spending 10 hours in the air collecting data on the Category 1 storm. Last week’s flight is the first of two scheduled flights for the program this month. The first Global Hawk carried a payload of instruments dedicated to measuring the environment during the storm.”
Photo credit above: NASA/Tony Landis
A Look At Tornadoes That Have Hit Major Cities. Here’s a timely article from The Associated Press and knoe.com: “Two tornadoes touched down at the edge of New York City on Saturday. No serious injuries were reported. Once exceedingly rare in New York, tornadoes have occurred with regularity in recent years. A small tornado uprooted trees on Long Island last month. In 2011, a fast-moving storm during the city’s evening rush hour spawned two destructive tornadoes and a fierce macroburst with wind speeds up to 125 mph that barreled across the city’s Brooklyn and Queens sections. A woman in a car who had just swapped seats with her husband was killed. A September storm in 2010 spawned two tornadoes that knocked down thousands of trees and blew off a few rooftops in Brooklyn and Queens. A small tornado struck the same year in the Bronx. In 2007, a more powerful tornado damaged homes in Brooklyn and Staten Island…”
* YouTube video above courtesy of Joe FitzGerald.
Cold Air Funnels. Ben Johnson captured this photo of non super-cellular funnels over Soldier Field in Chicago. I wonder if Bears fans even noticed?
First Flakes. Here’s a photo from Denali National Park and Preserve: “A view from the Savage River check station during today’s snowy weather.”
“Children Succeed” With Character, Not Test Scores. Here’s an excerpt from an NPR story that caught my eye: “A child’s success can’t be measured in IQ scores, standardized tests or vocabulary quizzes, says author Paul Tough. Success, he argues, is about how young people build character. Tough explores his idea in his new book, “How Children Succeed: Grit, Curiosity and the Hidden Power of Character.” “For some people, (the) path to college is so easy that they can get out into life and they’ve never really been challenged,” he tells NPR’s David Greene. “I think they get into their 20s and 30s and they really feel lost – they feel like they never had those character-building experiences as adolescents, as kids, that really make a difference when they get to adulthood.”
Minnesota’s pioneers braved the elements without the luxuries of central air, Thinsulate and heated car seats. They tolerated blizzards, tornadoes and floods, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the source of greatest dread was fire.
As many as half of all brushfires a century ago started from errant sparks along the railroads; an estimated 800 people may have perished in one horrific blaze in Hinckley, in 1894.
The risk of deadly conflagrations has come down, thanks to military-precision air drops of fire retardant and bulldozer brigades, but some threat remains.
A combination of deepening drought, gusty winds and tinder-dry humidity has forecasters concerned, especially tomorrow, when highs top 90F, for the 31st day this year. A Red Flag Warning for southwest Minnesota means fires may spread rapidly, with little warning.
We cool off by midweek, enough rain to settle the dust late Wednesday & Thursday. It won’t be enough; the biggest puddles staying south & east of MSP.
Lukewarm 70s return next weekend. Soak it up because long range models shows a REAL cold front next week. The sun is as high in the sky as it was March 31.
Yep, almost time to dig out the jackets.
* photo above courtesy of the DNR.
Studies in Europe and Japan have found that leaves are changing color later that usual, and new research by U.S. scientists is coming up with similar results:
Photo credit above: Stephen Goodhue – Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. “Despite recent erratic weather, Vermont offers classic New England foliage scenes. Some scientists fear that changes in the weather will affect maple leaves’ signature red.”
Pay No Attention To The Elephant: The Conventions And The Climate. Huffington Post has the story – here’s a snippet: “Let’s see now. What has happened in the last two weeks? Both major political parties held their quadrennial national conventions, each of which was disrupted by weather unanticipated by convention planners. Neither party emphasized climate change. Nor did the hordes of media types in attendance, who essentially ignored it in favor of the usual back-and-forth. And, oh yes, the once deeply ice-capped Arctic Sea turned into a giant slushy at the top of the world. At least President Barack Obama mentioned climate change as a serious issue. Which is not to say that Mitt Romney didn’t mention it, too. As a joke.”
Image credit above: “NASA says that Arctic Sea ice has reached a record low that is going lower.”