US Drought Update, Precipitation Outlook and Thanksgiving Day Preview
Thursday, November 15th, 2012
The U.S. Drought Monitor released their updated drought outlook today, which suggests SLIGHT improvements from last week and from earlier this year. The graphic below compares drought conditions from September 4th to November 13th. Note how there is slightly less red on the map along and east of the Mississippi Valley, but it persists through the Plains. Read more from the U.S. Drought Monitor:
“A Pacific storm system and associated cold front slowly tracked across the lower 48 States during the week, producing welcome and beneficial precipitation to portions of the Northwest, Rockies, Great Plains, Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley. As the period commenced, a Nor’easter off the middle and northern Atlantic Coast brought unseasonably heavy snow (up to a foot) to some areas devastated by Superstorm Sandy. In the West, the storm system dropped the largest precipitation totals on the mountains, with lesser amounts on lower elevation sites. As the system moved into the Nation’s midsection, Gulf moisture was tapped, producing swaths of moderate to heavy showers (more than an inch) from central Kansas northeastward into the UP of Michigan, and from northeastern Texas northeastward into southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Unfortunately, some parts of the country, namely the Southwest, southern and north-central Plains, and the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast States, missed the bulk of the precipitation and conditions persisted or worsened. Temperatures averaged below normal in the West and East, with above-normal readings in the southern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In Hawaii, mostly dry weather prevailed early in the period, but trade wind showers coupled with a nearby upper-level trough enhanced the east side rains later in the week. Southwestern and extreme southeastern Alaska received moderate to heavy precipitation.”
Drought Specifics
The graphic below goes into more detail about the current drought status/comparison from that of September 4th, 2012
Central Plains – Drought Persists
“Widespread, welcome rains (1 to 1.5 inches) fell from central Kansas northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while another 1 to 1.5 inch swath fell from southern Missouri northeastward into central Illinois and Indiana. Elsewhere in the Midwest, generally 0.5 to 1 inch of rain was reported. The exceptions included western Kansas, western two-thirds of Nebraska, most of South Dakota, southern North Dakota, and western Minnesota (less than 0.5 inches). With little runoff, minimal or no evaporation and crop uptake, lower temperatures, and unfrozen ground, this precipitation was especially beneficial as much of it went into recharging the deficient topsoil (and hopefully the subsoil) moisture. Accordingly, some 1-category improvements were made in central and northeastern Kansas (D4 to D3 central; D3 to D2 northeast), Missouri (D3 to D2 northwest; D2 to D1 west and south), Iowa (D3 to D2 west-central; D2 to D1 east), Wisconsin (D2 and D1 improvements in south and west-central; D0 to nothing in central), eastern South Dakota (D3 to D2), western Kentucky (some D0-D2 reductions), and Illinois (D1 to D0 west-central; D0 to nothing central and southern). In northern North Dakota, the precipitation fell as heavy snow (8 to 18 inches), requiring additional 1-category modifications there. No changes were made in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota as the rainfall totals were less than in aforementioned areas. In contrast, recent dryness in north-central South Dakota increased the D2 (D1 reduction). Although this week’s precipitation was welcome and beneficial, there are still long-term hydrologic drought impacts (streams, rivers, ponds, lakes) that need to recover. Continued precipitation during the non-growing season will be key for adequate moisture for next year’s Midwest and Plains crops and pastures, and for reducing hydrological drought impacts.“
Departure From Normal Precipitation Since January 1st
These numbers are unfortunately quite impressive. We still have several sites reporting more than 6″ behind normal precipitation since January 1st. In some cases, we are more than a foot behind normal precipitation.
River traffic threatened by low water levels on Upper Mississippi
Here’s an interesting story on how low water levels along the Mississippi River could halt barge traffic. Read more from TribLive.com HERE:
“A section of the Mississippi River is so low that much of the navigation along the river could grind to a halt in less than a month, the owner of a Washington County shipping company says. A summerlong drought left 180 miles of the Mississippi between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill., so low that it could cut off the Upper Mississippi from the river’s lower section.”
Low River Levels
Here’s an interesting picture from August 2012 compared to 2011 of the Mississippi River.
“The top satellite photo, taken just south of Memphis, Tenn. on Aug. 8, reveals extensive sandbars that are newly exposed or far larger than they were in August, 2011 (bottom). In addition, numerous stretches of the river have become significantly narrowed by decreased water flow. The low water levels have allowed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to repair levees damaged by floods in 2011, which are visible as tan lines surrounding the river in these images. (NASA images)”
Witchita, KS – Autumn Rains
Here’s a more specific look at precipitation in Wichita, KS vs. what we typically see.
North Platte, NE Autumn Rains
Here’s a more specific look at precipitation in North Platte, NE vs. what we typically see.
Southeast Drought
“In addition to the D0 expansion of southern Virginia into North Carolina (see Northeast and Mid-Atlantic summary), weekly totals of 0.75 to 1.25 inches in western sections (Appalachians) kept abnormal dryness from developing there. Farther east, however, lighter totals (less than 0.5 inches), accumulating short-term deficits (at 60-days, 3 to 6 inches), and dropping USGS stream flows (at 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-days), some below the tenth percentile, called for deterioration in southern and eastern sections of Georgia and South Carolina. For example, Brunswick, GA, was over 5 inches below normal since September 1, and only received 0.03 inches from the recent storm. D1 and D2 was also expanded in east-central and northern Georgia as both short and long-term deficiencies grew. At least some decent rain (0.5 to 1 inch) fell on parts of northwestern Georgia, preventing further degradation there. In South Carolina, the dry weather has kept conditions favorable for harvesting, but small grain seeding remains slow until rainfall increases. In SC and GA, statewide topsoil moisture was rated 67 and 74 percent short and very short, respectively, while GA subsoil moisture was rated 71 percent short and very short.”
Precipitation From Normal Since January 1st
Unreal… Take a look at the precipitation from normal since January 1st! These numbers are quite staggering as well.
Corps expects 6-inch drop in Lake Lanier each week
Here’s a story on how the drought is effecting folks in the Southeast…
Read more from GainesvilleTimes.com HERE:
“Lake Lanier is almost 2 feet lower than it was at the start of November due at least in part to an increase in the amount of water released by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The corps announced in late October that it would release more water from Lanier and West Point Lake because of drought conditions affecting the river basin in Georgia, eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.”
Macon, GA – Autumn Rains
Here’s a more specific look at precipitation in Macon, GA vs. what we typically see.
Minnesota Drought
“Widespread, welcome rains (1 to 1.5 inches) fell from central Kansas northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while another 1 to 1.5 inch swath fell from southern Missouri northeastward into central Illinois and Indiana. Elsewhere in the Midwest, generally 0.5 to 1 inch of rain was reported. The exceptions included western Kansas, western two-thirds of Nebraska, most of South Dakota, southern North Dakota, and western Minnesota (less than 0.5 inches). With little runoff, minimal or no evaporation and crop uptake, lower temperatures, and unfrozen ground, this precipitation was especially beneficial as much of it went into recharging the deficient topsoil (and hopefully the subsoil) moisture. Accordingly, some 1-category improvements were made in central and northeastern Kansas (D4 to D3 central; D3 to D2 northeast), Missouri (D3 to D2 northwest; D2 to D1 west and south), Iowa (D3 to D2 west-central; D2 to D1 east), Wisconsin (D2 and D1 improvements in south and west-central; D0 to nothing in central), eastern South Dakota (D3 to D2), western Kentucky (some D0-D2 reductions), and Illinois (D1 to D0 west-central; D0 to nothing central and southern). In northern North Dakota, the precipitation fell as heavy snow (8 to 18 inches), requiring additional 1-category modifications there. No changes were made in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota as the rainfall totals were less than in aforementioned areas. In contrast, recent dryness in north-central South Dakota increased the D2 (D1 reduction). Although this week’s precipitation was welcome and beneficial, there are still long-term hydrologic drought impacts (streams, rivers, ponds, lakes) that need to recover. Continued precipitation during the non-growing season will be key for adequate moisture for next year’s Midwest and Plains crops and pastures, and for reducing hydrological drought impacts.”
2012 a Banner Grain Year in Minnesota?
Despite the floods and drought in Minnesota, 2012 is a banner grain year in Minnesota!
“COTTONWOOD COUNTY, Minn. — The seeds Minnesota corn and soybean farmers planted last spring paid off with good yields and great profits, as the state’s two largest cash crops should generate about $13 billion in revenue. Although drought and other bad weather threatened some fields in 2012, many Minnesota farmers had a great year.”
Record Low Lake Levels Expected for Michigan and Huron?
Read more from MichiganRadio.org HERE:
“Lake Michigan and Lake Huron could hit record low water levels in the next six months. That’s according to a projection by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are functionally one body of water – they’re connected at the Straits of Mackinac. They’ve been below their long-term average for more than a decade.”
Here’s another story from ChicagoTribune.com HERE:
“Dry summer helps push Lake Michigan water levels to near-record lows. New mark could be set in coming months, posing headaches for anglers and boaters — and raising long-term worries”
(photo courtesy: Heather Charles, Chicago Tribune)
Drought Outlook
“Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (November 15-19), a relatively tranquil weather pattern will envelop the Nation’s midsection. Another Nor’easter is expected to develop and affect the southern and middle Atlantic Coast States later in the period, while another Pacific storm system impacts the western quarter of the U.S., possibly reaching the Rockies by Sunday or Monday. In between the two systems, little or no precipitation is expected to fall. Temperatures are forecast to average above normal from the Intermountain West eastward into the upper Midwest and the southern Plains. Subnormal readings are expected in the southern Atlantic Coast States and along the California Coast. For the 6-10 day outlook (November 20–24), the odds favor above normal precipitation in the Northwest eastward into the upper Midwest, with subnormal precipitation likely from the Four Corner States eastward into the Southeast, and in Alaska. Chances for above normal temperatures are good across the western half of the Nation and into New England, with the highest odds in the North-Central States. Subnormal temperature probabilities are largest in the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast States, and in Alaska.”
Seasonal Drought Outlook
Three Month Precipitation Outlook
Precipitation For Thanksgiving?
The ECMWF (European) model suggests a fairly quiet Thanksgiving Day across the nation. Other than the Pacific Northwest’s heavy rain, high elevation snow. The entire nation looks to stay mostly dry!
2012 On Track For Warmest Year EVER?
For those of you who haven’t seen this yet, it’s pretty remarkable!
“After 16 consecutive months with warmer-than-normal conditions, October brought fairly average temperatures to the United States. Arctic air kept the center of the country cooler than average, while most of the coasts were warmer than average. But are we still on track for the warmest year in the United States’ climate record?”
Read more from ClimateWatch.NOAA.gov HERE:
Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week!
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