WeatherNation Blog

Snow Over Upper Midwest This Weekend

Breaking News?

 

 

What has happened to us? When I arrived back in 1983 a forecast of 6 inches of snow was “no big deal”. Yes, there will be school tomorrow. I bragged out loud about Minnesota’s state of the art snow removal. During the 90′s three inches of snow was a lead story. Really? When did we become Atlanta? Now a lousy inch leads the news. “Uh oh, I smell a tough commute”.

 

 

As old fashioned winters & big snows become the equivalent of an albino squirrel – each feeble burst of snow takes on new urgency. At this rate we’ll become Washington D.C., where the mention of “flurries” causes a run on grocery stores.

 

 

Someone call MnDOT, FEMA and The National Guard: a coating of slush is possible tonight; a mix of rain and wet snow may drop 1-3″ of oatmeal-like slush on Minnesota Saturday night. Looking out 2 weeks – any snow will come in dribs and drabs.

 

 

Bitter air is building over Alaska and the Yukon. Maybe we’ll get smacked before Christmas. Yes, we are due.

 

 

No moisture is bad news. Minnesota Climate Chief Greg Spoden: “Without abundant spring rains a number of critical drought issues involving public water supply, agriculture, horticulture, and tourism will rapidly emerge in the spring”.

 

 

There’s your breaking news.

 

 

 

How much snow? Welcome to the world of dueling models. Which one to believe, and when? Great question. We look for continuity, some agreement from model to model, and run to run. Are they converging on one solution? If so our confidence level goes up. A quick half inch or inch of slushy snow is possible tonight, a better chance of a couple inches of slushy snow Saturday night and early Sunday; more north metro, less south metro.

 

 

WSI RPM Model. Here is one of the more reliable models we use; WSI’s exclusive 12 km. RPM model. The latest guidance shows some 2-4″ amounts in the metro area, most of that coming Saturday night and early Sunday. Temperatures may be just above freezing Saturday night (lowest few hundred feet of the atmosphere), which should mean a wet, slushy snow, possibly even a period of sleet, which would keep inch amounts down somewhat. That said, my confidence level is increasing that we may actually wake up to a coating of white Sunday morning. I know. Shocking.

 

 

NAM Model. Another fairly reliable model: NOAA’s NAM, which shows less snow than the RPM. I’m not discounting this, considering we’re in a drought. My expectations (rain, ice and snow) are unusually low, due to the dry rut we’re stuck in. Sadly, the drought is another factor to weigh. There’s little doubt that snowfall amounts will be higher north/west of the MSP metro Saturday night into early Sunday.

Record Snow Drought For Chicago? WGN-TV weather legend Tom Skilling reports that, as of Sunday, Chicago will have gone 280 days without measurable snow, an all-time record for the Windy City.

 

Growing Concern About Minnesota’s Drought. Here’s an excerpt from a recent update from Greg Spoden, Minnesota State Climatologist:

- Across Minnesota, snow cover is sparse to nonexistent. At all locations, the present snow depth is below the historical median.

 

 

- Stream discharge values are very low at a number of Minnesota reporting locations. At many sites, stream flow ranks below the 10th percentile when compared with historical data for this time of year.

 

- Soil moisture measurements made during November at University of Minnesota Research and Outreach Centers indicate extraordinarily dry conditions in the soil profile. Ample early-spring rains are critically needed to replenish soil moisture reserves before the commencement of the 2013 growing season.

 

 

- It is reasonable to assume that the present drought status will remain relatively unchanged throughout the winter. The historical average precipitation over the next three months is a meager two and one-half inches and the topsoil will soon be sealed by frost. Without abundant spring rains, a number of critical drought issues involving public water supply, agriculture, horticulture, and tourism will rapidly emerge in the spring.

“Bleak Forecast”. The recent interview I gave to Jim Poyser at NUVO in Indianapolis is being picked up by other publications, including Utah’s City Weekly. Yes, my dermatologist is calling 911 right now. I’ve never had Doppler on my face, even worse than egg on my face? Here’s an excerpt: ”…I’m not saying we don’t take advantage of our natural resources. The message I’m trying to get out is that by fixating exclusively on fossil fuels, not only are we endangering future generations, we are endangering our competitiveness downt he road. Because there is no debate about climate change in Europe or China. They are moving forward with clean alternatives to creating energy. If we totally focus on mining and drilling and extracting ever last bit of carbon at the exclusion of solar and wind and geothermal and battery technology and everything else that’s out there, we are going to be crippled as a country, competitively…”

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ABOUT ME

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Welcome to the WeatherNation blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I’ll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. I’m still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I’ve started 5 weather-related companies. “EarthWatch” created the world’s first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations – Steven Spielberg used our software in “Jurassic Park” and “Twister”. My last company, “Digital Cyclone”, personalized weather for cell phones. “My-Cast” was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation. I also write a daily weather column for The Star Tribune startribune.com/weather And if you’re on Twitter, you’ll find me @pdouglasweather

 

Comments

  1. Diane Baum
    December 07, 2012 at 08:11 am

    loved you comments in the City Weekly. You are one voice…many people are still in denial about climate change. As long as they can keep buying those SUV’s ans as long as we have “abundant supplies” of electricity and oil under the current plan, who is going to rock the boat and demand change? Look at how Al Gore was vilified for his position on it!! As long as big oil and big electric companies control the government…and you know they do…and until the public asks for change, it won’t happen.

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