Rains are forecast to continue for the moisture laden Sunshine State as a quasi-stationary mid-level low is forecast to slowly weaken and begin drifting slightly to the northeast, then in a generally westward direction.
Accumulations have been impressive so far with some reports of over ten inches of rainfall with a spread of three to seven inches along the eastern coast of the Florida peninsula.
As the system begins to propagate over the upcoming weekend, a broad swath of precipitation will impact areas from the Carolinas through the Gulf Coast. Accumulations of two inches or more is not out of the question as slow movement plus abundant moisture will spread rains through the Mississippi Delta and into the Arklatex region.
Elsewhere in the West, an upper-level trough is aiding in producing rains and will continue to do so over the next several days. Moderate accumulations are expected over the Four Corners region for the next few days before gradually shifting into the plains.
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
An impressive cold front will be the line in the sand of clashing air masses today that will result in dangerous weather extending from Oklahoma through Illinois. Concerns of hail are quite high extending over the entire area as well as the potential for damaging winds. The tornado threat will be heightened later today and into this evening as as additional instability is introduced into the mix that will result in lewp structures greatly enhancing the threat of winds and tornadoes especially in Missouri and Illinois, as well as the likelihood of bandit cell formation ahead of the line.
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
The SPC’s Public Severe Weather Outlook is below for your convenience:
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 131202
ARZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-132000-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA
ELSEWHERE…SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE
GREAT LAKES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG A
SHARP COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS SURGES INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT FRONTAL
ZONE…INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS…THEN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI INTO KANSAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH MANY STORMS…ALONG WITH A FEW
TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY…A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. WIND/MOISTURE PROFILES WITH THIS CIRCULATION SUGGEST A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ALSO
BE ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO…TELEVISION…AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES…WARNINGS…AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..DARROW.. 05/13/2009
$$
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
A mature bow echo is streaming across southern Missouri this morning and will continue to trek in an easterly direction at around 60mph. This system has already dropped reported wind gusts in excess of 80mph overnight, and has the potential for strong winds, hail, and the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
Later today in eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas, strong daytime heating will result in impressive mlcape values of up to 4000 j/kg with a strong capping inversion in place. Convergence and forecast shear profiles should result in discrete supercells, especially in eastern Oklahoma with the potential of very large hail, strong winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.
Over the weekend strong thunderstorms will persist in the south from eastern Texas through Georgia, as well as the midatlantic states tomorrow. Review our Convective Outlooks for more information.
Below is a copy of the Storm Prediction Center’s Public Severe Weather Outlook for today:
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 081143
ARZ000-MOZ000-081945-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO WEST VIRGINIA.
WELL DEFINED...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT SURGES EAST AT ROUGHLY 60 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. VERY
STRONG WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF
SRN KANSAS WHERE GUSTS HAVE APPROACHED 80 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..DARROW.. 05/08/2009
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
Severe weather will continue to pound the south for the next few days. Today Atlanta will be in the bullseye as an ongoing MCS with embedded supercells will plow into the region.
Concerns with this setup are not just the expected strong straight-line winds but discrete supercells developing within and ahead of the system as the warm sector continues to destabilize enhancing the potential for tornado development. Strong storms are expected across the south today, curving as far north as Washington D.C.
Flooding will also be a concern over the next few days as the system moves through spreading heavy rains and flash flooding all across the south and into Appalachia today.
Forecast rain totals for the next five days are quite impressive, as maximums of six inches or more are expected in Arkansas, with heavy totals spreading across the southern United States.
Heavy totals are also expected over the next few days not just in the southern U.S., but also along the mid-Atlantic and New England states as the system moves through.
Snow is still in the future for the Pacific Northwest and inland as a trough is expected to push inland bringing in an unseasonably cold air mass with it. This will allow snow amounts up to around 6” or so along the Washington Cascades and northern Rockies over the next few days, obviously limitted to areas of elevated terrain.
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
Blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings are ongoing for Montana this morning, with the advisories scheduled to last through tomorrow morning. A sample warning from the region looks as follows:
BLIZZARD WARNING
Issue Date: 506 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2009
Expiration: 600 AM MDT THU APR 30 2009
…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS UPGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY.
SNOW…HEAVY AT TIMES…WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING…EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES OVER THE PLAINS…AND 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT…WHEN SNOWFALL RATES COULD
APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOWFALL…COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH…WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES…WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET…CAUSING WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO LIVESTOCK…TRAVEL…POWER TRANSMISSION…
AND ALL OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. EXTRA PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN FOR THIS STORM…ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU…INCLUDING AN
EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER. IF YOU GET STRANDED…STAY
WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
$$
More severe thunderstorms are in store for the plains today after 5 tornado reports were received from yesterday’s activity. Today the SPC has issued a slight risk in their convective outlook category running from Fort Stockton, TX through northeastern Nebraska. Very respectable hail is definitely in the cards today, especially in Texas as those familiar with the Floydata to Childress region are well aware, which is also where I would place the best odds for tornado development today, although as usual with this type of setup anywhere from odessa through the garden city corridor has good odds.
Our Rivers & Lakes Center is going nuts with flooding across the country this morning with 12 gauges showing major flooding, 45 with moderate flooding, and 82 with minor flooding. Today’s rains will only add to the furor as heavy precipitation falls across the nation.
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
